One of the final acts performed by parliament in 2007 was passing the health care reform bill. One of the first acts performed by parliament in 2008 will be voting on the health care reform bill again, as president László Sólyom returned the bill to parliament for further deliberations. Should the bill be passed again, it will not require Sólyom’s signature, but many on the Right are hoping that Socialist MPs with misgivings over the health care reform bill will simply “call in sick” this time around, thus allowing the opposition to prevent its passage; an unlikely outcome, but a possibility nonetheless.
The big story for the year, however, will be the referendum, tentatively scheduled for this spring. The questions on the referendum will cover the hospital day fee, doctor-visit fee, and tuition for higher education. Fidesz has described this referendum as something of a recall election, promising that if the referendum succeeds, the governing coalition would be forced to resign. Unfortunately for Fidesz and their supporters, the reality is that it would be another blemish on the record of the current government, but would in no way require their departure. The government’s position was far more tenuous following the lies speech than it would be following a Fidesz referendum win.
While a Fidesz referendum victory would affect policy in three areas, it would not transform the government. Nonetheless, it would be a further boost to a resurgent Fidesz and a blow to a government mining new depths in popularity polls. It appears that the Free Democrats are now banking everything on the reforms bearing fruit before the next elections, which will happen in 2010 at the latest, (barring early elections), while the Socialists have also pinned their future on Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, (for the time being), in the hopes of visible economic improvement just around the corner.
Even though Fidesz continues their demands for new elections, it is in their interest for the Socialists to remain in power for the time being. While the methods and areas in need of reform are debated, both sides agree that the economy is in shambles and that the austerity measures are necessary. By allowing the Socialists to implement them, Fidesz can avoid being on the receiving end of the nation’s anger, and they will also inherit a healthier economy when they (most likely) come to power following the next elections. Fidesz can then spend their time making changes or undoing what the Socialists did, and blame any necessary unpopular programs on the previous government.
At the same time, the current political situation has been a lifesaver thrown to Fidesz Chairman Viktor Orbán, who was caught in a rightward current, but has over the course of the previous year quietly drifted back in the direction of the center. Taking into consideration Fidesz’s large lead in the polls among confirmed voters, Fidesz has been quietly closing the door on the far right it usually keeps open to gain their votes on election day. The public relations nightmare known as the Hungarian Guard has also forced Fidesz, who have generally refrained from commenting with respect to the far right, to come out and denounce them. Prime Minister Gyurcsány’s newfound coziness with the Russians has also allowed Orbán to mend fences with the Americans and position himself as the pro-American alternative to Gyurcsány, this despite frequently strained relations during Orbán’s tenure as prime minister.
While the first fruits of the austerity program have become visible, in the form of debt as percentage of the GDP dropping and international approval, what has instead been noticed by the average Hungarian is the sluggishness of the economy, price hikes, and a reduction of spending on services, meaning that the government has not won over the majority of the voting public, although the government still has some time to sway them.
It would be a surprise if the health care reform bill were not to pass again, but if it fails to, the referendum, while not government-toppling, would have more significance than it currently does. Fidesz’s main challenge this year will to maintain their current pace of challenging the government, where they can make promises for the future and criticize without having to do the dirty work themselves.
