February 19th, 2008

Gyurcsány’s big speech: The political realities

Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány made a much-anticipated “keynote” address to the Hungarian parliament on Monday, apologizing for “disappointing” voters and the “extremely tough” 18 months the country had endured. He then heralded in an era of “new politics” dedicated to job creation, education and “ownership,” promising tax cuts in 2009 and share offerings in Hungary’s few remaining state-run companies. Despite its sweeping language and new proposals, it was quickly dismissed by many observers as a populist attempt to distract attention from the upcoming referendum on doctor’s visit and tuition fees.

Gyurcsány focused on successful aspects of his government’s fiscal and administrative reforms, which have garnered enthusiastic praise from international observers – if not the Hungarian population – for reining in the country’s public sector deficit. He acknowledged that prices and taxes had increased far in excess of average incomes, but insisted that the pain of the last year-and-a-half would now allow him to shape policy “without compromise.”

(For more details on the economic implications of the speech, see this article on Realdeal.hu)

Another important element of the speech was an allusion to the power of citizens to enact change through knowledge, education and ownership, comments clearly designed to bring the government closer to the electorate.

Part of this initiative was to “throw a bone” to the country’s right, which has long argued against the selling off in the 1990s of many key businesses to foreign investors. The “ownership” part of Gyurcsány’s “New Deal” was a promise to direct future share sales to Hungarian citizens, while continuing to keep the underlying companies in majority government ownership.

Many of the government’s fiercest critics lambasted the speech for being vague and lacking in focus or concrete proposals, but it was clear that the Prime Minister was not going to be drawn on Hungary’s current hot topic, the upcoming referendum. The government’s clear policy is to trivialize the referendum, billed by the right as a vote of no confidence in the government, but essentially a vote on co-payments of Ft 300 (€1.20) for medical treatment and comparatively minor university tuition fees, a trifle by international standards.

Although the government is not expecting to win the referendum, it is hoping for a turnout low enough to render the vote null. By making headlines with its equally populist “citizen privatization” initiative and skirting the issue of Hungary’s increasingly overstretched healthcare system, Gyurcsány is seen by many as having shrewdly and successfully diverted attention from the referendum.

Meanwhile, main opposition party Fidesz continued to refuse to listen to Gyurcsány’s “lies,” a reference to the leaked speech in Balatonöszöd that sparked street violence in 2006, by walking out of Parliament in protest.

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