A new poll conducted by Szonda Ipsos indicates that most voters who expect to turn out for Sunday’s referendum will vote to approve all three of the measures on the ballot, which seek to overturn the government’s introduction of fees on medical services and college attendance. Meanwhile, the survey suggests that turnout for the referendum is likely to be high enough to clear the threshold required for it to be binding, reports Népszabadság.
The survey was conducted between 25 February and 1 March, and involved a representative sample of 1,500 people. A majority of Fidesz supporters contacted said they were firm in their determination to vote “yes,” while supporters of the ruling Socialists wavered between voting “no” and staying home, with half of the latter expressing disinterest in the issue. While two-thirds of Fidesz supporters polled said they think the questions play an important role in their lives, only 40% of self-identified left-wing voters said the same. Meanwhile, 30% of those surveyed said they think a valid “yes” votes will result in the resignation of the current Socialist-Liberal government.
A previous referendum held in December 2004 on questions relating to hospital privatization and benefits for ethnic Hungarians living abroad was declared invalid due to low turnout.
As expected, there was a strong correlation between answers involving the three questions on the ballot, with 94% of those who support abolishing the hospital stay fee wanting to get rid of the similar Ft 300 (roughly €1.25) charge for visits to doctors’ offices, and 87% percent wanting to abolish tuition fees as well. A less powerful but still strong correlation was found between the “no” answers for the three questions.
If only 30% of voters turn out for the referendum, the number of “yes” votes might stay below two million, and the results will probably not be valid. But according to the survey this is unlikely. Meanwhile, if turnout exceeds 40% the number of “yes” votes would probably exceed 2.5 million, with half a million “no” votes.
