While newly-elected SZDSZ chairman Gábor Fodor managed to topple János Kóka using language aimed at the widest possible range of potential supporters, political analysts at the Nézőpont Intézet argue in a report that the new head of Hungary’s hard-pressed Liberals has until this autumn to decide who he really wants standing behind him.
According to the study, Fodor’s broad outreach – which saw slogans appealing to economic, social and environmental liberals to some right-wingers – was enough to win him the party chairmanship, but to get the SZDSZ enough votes in the next election to ensure its role as a parliamentary party he will have to choose a much more targeted strategy.
With the party currently polling three percent, to reach the five percent threshold necessary for parliamentary representation, they will either need to woo back former supporters put off by the SZDSZ’s failed coalition with the Socialists, or win new ones.
In addition to those who supported the party in the 2006 elections, the groups seen as most open to the SDSZ are those who currently sympathize with the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF), and voters interested in environmental issues.
To win by back disillusioned 2006 voters would require a convincing demonstration that the party is committed to sound economic management and reform. Meanwhile, to win over MDF sympathizers, Fodor would need to position himself as a strong leader outside of the mold of either Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány or Fidesz leader Viktor Orbán, and would need to “neutralize” the unpopular Kóka. Finally, claiming the “green mantle” would entail certain risks, as the size and voting patters of the mostly urban individuals concerned with environmental issues often become clear only after elections.
