An attempt to determine who will continue as the parliamentary faction leader for the Free Democrats (SZDSZ) this previous weekend failed to find a winner, as the vote resulted in a tie. Party chairman Gábor Fodor’s bid to unseat current faction leader János Kóka thus ended in a deadlock, with Kóka staying-on as interim faction leader until a new vote is held.
While other analysis has focused on the potential split this could cause and what would be necessary to heal the rift, if the rift widens, it could ultimately be to the benefit of the Fodor wing of the party.
As the previous piece highlighted, the Kóka wing is close to the Socialist Party (MSZP), with Kóka being Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s former protégé, while the Fodor wing is not nearly as cozy with the Socialists, as Fodor was a founding member of Fidesz before leaving that party for ideological differences in 1993. Although the Free Democrats left the Socialist-led government under Kóka’s term as party chief, Fodor has proven himself more willing to but heads with the Socialists than his predecessor.
With support for the party mired in the low single digits, below what they would need to scrape into parliament, the party is unlikely to hold votes for a parliamentary faction leader after the spring of 2010. The European Parliamentary elections, to be held next June, will be the ultimate indicator of just how little support the party still retains.
A little over a year ago, I wrote how the Free Democrats’ only chance at regaining popularity would be an immediate break with the Socialists at the governmental level. The break was neither immediate, nor quite the break some hoped it would be. After leaving the governing coalition in April, the Free Democrats have largely continued to support the government from the outside, thus failing to chip away at their image as “MSZP-lite.”
It is clear that the Kóka wing would prefer to tie their fortunes with the Socialists, while the Fodor wing has been more ambivalent. At this point, perhaps the only way forward for the party is if it were to split in two.
If that were the case, the Kóka wing would undoubtedly fall into obscurity or become absorbed by the Socialists, while the Fodor wing could, without tacking to the right, define their independence from the Socialists. There are many voters in Hungary who strongly dislike both the Socialists and Fidesz, but cannot bring themselves to support the Free Democrats because since 1994 a vote for the Free Democrats has been – by extension – a vote for the Socialists.
These potential Free Democrat supporters are the people who strongly oppose the Socialists because of their communist past (and in some cases present) who hold liberal political values, yet cannot bring themselves to vote for the Free Democrats because of who will ultimately benefit. For the Free Democrats, this split could present their final chance at regaining enough popularity to sneak back into parliament. After all, what else do they have to lose but their parliamentary seats?
