Barring some unforeseeable event, the first six months of 2009 in terms of Hungarian politics will be fairly uneventful. A minor scandal may erupt on one political side or the other, the leading politicians will spend their time publicly criticizing each other, but nothing of consequence is likely to happen. Following the European Parliamentary elections in June, the situation will dramatically change.
While polls are a rough guide to party preferences among the electorate, the EP elections will be a far more accurate bellwether, not merely in terms of how much support a party possesses, but whether or not their followers are committed enough to vote for them.
Although it will come as a surprise to no one when Fidesz takes a comfortable majority of the seats, questions linger over how few seats the Socialists (MSZP) will retain and whether or not the smaller Democratic Forum (MDF) and Free Democrats (SZDSZ) can muster enough support to make it in. Given their current place in the polls, the Democratic Forum and Free Democrats are expected to lose their seats, at least one of which will be taken over by far-right party Jobbik.
Jobbik, who have proven their capability at public relations stunts, have placed controversial lawyer Krisztina Morvai at the top of their EP list. Considering how she’ll be a magnet for the protest vote against Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány (and to a lesser extent Fidesz chairman Viktor Orbán) and because EP elections are far less significant than national elections, many will cast their vote for her simply to show their distaste with the status quo in Hungary.
The immediate result of the election of a far-right representative to Strasbourg will be that the parties of the left will denounce the results and the prime minister will organize or attend an anti-fascist rally. The long term result will not affect Fidesz significantly but will have a bearing primarily on the Socialists and Free Democrats. While former voters for the Free Democrats and Democratic Forum may return to their respective parties out of fear, the reality of this is less likely with the Democratic Forum, who are essentially a spent force in Hungarian politics.
The Socialists stand to gain the most from the rise of Jobbik, since as the large party of the Left, they will receive the most votes from those fearful of the far-right. It could also be a boon for the Free Democrats, provided they reposition themselves as a viable alternative for those on the Left. What remains to be seen is if they can distance themselves from their image as “MSZP-lite.”
As for the other question of will this result in Prime Minister Gyurcsány’s resignation? That is unlikely at best, as Gyurcsány is likely to hang on until the general elections in 2010, at which point he will either resign just before them, or decline to run for another term.
“The immediate result of the election of a far-right representative to Strasbourg will be that the parties of the left will denounce the results and the prime minister will organize or attend an anti-fascist rally. The long term result will not affect Fidesz significantly but will have a bearing primarily on the Socialists and Free Democrats.”
Quite the opposite. Fidesz will have to make clear their relationship with Jobbik and the far right. It is very likely that the only losers for a Jobbik surge will be Fidesz as their voters are unlikely to come from anywhere else – even if the percentage of floating voters is about 40% of the electorate.
Both the elections in District IX and the Euro elections may finally force Orbán to make his position clear – should be amusing listening to him squaring that circle. Particularly in light of his new found Euro love-in.
Given that Jobbik and the Gárda are planning on going to District IX this weekend (17th) for a hate-fest the Anti-fascist march may come somewhat earlier than you say also.
But let’s ask the guy with the newly sewn name tags in his undies for his opinion: over to you Ricsi-boy.
You are not worthy of a reply these days !
Hate fest ??? Only if idiots like you turn up in your glad rags.
Over and out,big boys have got big work to do now.
Below is an exerpt documentary aired recently on Canada’s CBC radio show Dispatches. Here is the link for those who would like to hear the podcast.
http://www.cbc.ca/dispatches/
Hungary’s Pure right
They wear a distinctive uniform.
They target a particular ethnic group.
And they do the dirtywork for a right-wing political movement.
You’d think we’d learned this lesson about 60 years ago.
But there are a few in Hungary who have not.
Political extremism is finding a foothold there, as we hear from Saroja Coelho in the capital.
Saroja’s documentary…
http://www.cbc.ca/dispatches/
@zsuzsi
Why dont you come here and experience the villages and areas where the gypsies? are terrorising Hungarians, Saroja Coelho is a biased neo liberal extremist radical journlist. I have met many guarda and Jobbik members and they are more civilised then any Gypsy or neo liberal supporter.
The Gypsies/Roma are Hungarian, just as 10% of Hungarians are Gypsies/Roma. You need to learn to find a way to talk about yourself that makes it clear that you are the real freak that sticks out, not the other way around. Jobbik are a max of 2% of the population. I suggest we just call you as you have names yourselves: Yobs
IBS your a pathetic moron, we are hovering around 10% you are a consistent liar!!
So Horse Poo you admit you are a Yob(bik).
Straight from the horse’s mouth.
IBS go play with yourself!
hotpaprika — a bit confused by your defensive post to me. I took no position on this subject, only posted a recent radio program that is directly related to the original post. I know nothing about this journalist or her political leanings.
I have no idea what has made you so confrontational and dismissive of other people’s legitimate opinions, but it must have been terrible. And, for what it’s worth, I have visited Hungarian villages.
@zsuzsi
”I have no idea what has made you so confrontational and dismissive of other people’s legitimate opinions, but it must have been terrible.”
Well I think the process of Waking up to the reality of western propaganda! Which is the evil doing of a corrupt group of elite manipulators, moving to this country Hungary further helped me wake up to the destructive regime which capitalistic leaders are continuously campaigning for, who hide behind the veil of freedom through democracy, which is another scandal. The lies in which our History has been written and still being defended by a group of Elite spreading an ideology that is destroying human morals, oppressing people not only within Hungary but all over the globe. I think that is a quick summary.
What is the current government doing to stop these minorities gypsy crimes? Hungarians living in the villages live in fear of leaving there homes in the evenings, walking the streets incase they get mugged or harassed, tax payers locking there homes up like a fortress while they go off to work, who are paying the majority of the lazy gypsy welfare to these bluggers !!
The national Guard are the only security for the people living under these conditions, you actually think if we where living in a civilized place the Guarda would have become this strong? The Jobbik party is the only party reveling what a chaotic world we are living and wants to introduce moral changes, they are not against anybody who is working to increase the wealth of the Hungarian nation, there against people screwing our nation. Simple no fancy academic explanation, just straight from the heart , sorry if it offends but there the facts..
@Hot Pap – Three Simple questions.
1. Who decides what ‘screwing the nation’ is?
2. “They are against” – What specifically would you do to the people you are against?
3. What should the public do if Jobbik mismanages the process?
1. Who decides what ‘screwing the nation’ is?
Hungarian Citizens
2. “They are against” – What specifically would you do to the people you are against?
Jail or exile
3. What should the public do if Jobbik mismanages the process?
All of the above
HP you really are that stupid aint ye. Sounds like
you’re building a plan to create the Planet of the
Apes. 2% of Jobbik support means no chance for
you. Exile!! Do you understand what nationality
means? Where to? Where are you going to send the
defective Hungarians? Please let me join Planet of
the Yob(bik) Apes!!!!! Pretty please!!!!!!!!!!
IBS Your nothing but a provocateur , time after time you appear, you have no idea of how stupid you are! You’re the minority in Hungary, people are awaken to your crap and by the next elections you will be around the 2 % and I assure you that this will be a better and safer country to reside in for all moral citizens once Jobbik arrive in parliament. Your statistics have been plucked from your bum. Now go to bed before your parents find out your playing on the comp!
Innocenti
Nice to see you using slang spelling like Hot Paprika, ‘aint ye ‘ ??
What is good for one is not good for the other ?
Richie pants, I just thought I’d try being
illiterate like you lot to see how it felt. Not
great!!! You must feel so crap all the time.
Crap ? when dealing with the likes of you ? yer havin a laff matey !!!
Zsuzsi, thanks for radio link. I find it very good. I hope is some actions against the Gárda – they are just some thugs. I come from a village. The Gárda comes and makes manipulation on people desperation.
Hot Paprika, did you listened the documentary? Saroja Coelho is making talkings with Gárda member and Jobbik peoples and Angyalkommandó too. I hear also Erwin Nagy or David Kovacs I think. Many sides on this topic. I find very good. Maybe you listen first?
Maybe also no more swears and fights. It is very dumb way for discussing politics.
Well Nina, I definately listened to it and it was a biased radio documentry in my opinion.
Hotpaprika, you need to read the definition of neo-liberal. Check it out on wikipedia. Pretty good definition there.
@CC
Well mate you stick to your version of neo liberal theory, in future dont quite the Wikipedia! its the most manipulated and biased resource available when researching politics religion and history. Experience is what I am talking about and The NOW!! Not some poxy leader quoting theory which sounds great and in reality we have gangsters like our current leaders hiding behind this mask!
where are you Anonymous???? lets see how good your spell check is
Bla Bla Bla
@Hot Paprika – Try 1 tab x 4mg Risperdal x 14 days. If no improvement, increase dosage to 2 tabs x 10 times daily.