This will be a tough year for most Hungarians. (One of) Europe’s
sick men will be hit hard, by the monster never seen before, and no one can really predict what it is capable of. Hungarians did not see what was coming, and this is going to make their lives even more uncomfortable. They have spent at Christmas as if it would be the last one, and despite the difficulties, they are doing everything to keep their living standard on a level that they could not really afford even before the crisis. Now, almost 90% of Hungarians say they are unable save a forint, meaning they are living on their savings or taking out even more loans – loans which are not getting cheaper. An ability to adapt would be useful during these rather troubling times, but these are skills we are not particular rich in.
The first to really feel the effects of the crisis have been those on the periphery of society, people without proper jobs or savings, those who are living on social benefits, or with only occasional work in the grey economy. It’s no surprise that we have recently seen an unprecedented number of bank robberies – six altogether in the first month of the year – as people start to take “non-conformist” options when they cannot see any light at the end of the tunnel.
The forecasts looking ahead are not promising, either. Confidence indices are at historic lows, ever lower than the ones recorded during the deep austerity measures of 1995 brought in by the famous/infamous “Bokros package.”
Really tough times could expand the national consciousness, and help breed the skills needed to adapt. Until then, the crisis will bring to the surface ugly things which, while already present in society, were well-hidden under the carpet of relative prosperity. People will be (even more) impatient and intolerant, and will blame all the easy targets.
But here comes the good news: Things cannot really get much worse. Hungarians already are one of the least happy and most pessimistic nations in the EU, and on these metrics there isn’t a great deal of room for downward motion. At least we will finally have a reason to be unhappy.
Just back from a trip to Northern Ireland and the contrast between the outward, superficial effects of the crisis is very apparent. The various shopping centres in Belfast have had their worst Xmas since records began, restaurants and pubs are closing by the score, people are stopping at home for their holidays this summer and the big worry expressed by many economists is that those still in work are saving too much(!) out of fear for the future.
Here, it’s apparently business as usual. Either Hungary has escaped (with the help of the nice IMF) to a parallel unaffected universe… or the population is suffering from some form of mass delusion that if they spend enough money (that they don’t actually possess) then somehow the crisis will do the decent thing and disappear quietly. A very big shock is heading this direction and very soon.
Well I think that, unlike in places like Britain, the impact will likely be felt first and hardest in the countryside, where the manufacturing is, and the layoffs are. Indeed, the various “rescue” and “stimulus” programs will lead to more money slushing through the government, much of which will stay in the capital. Though what’s weird about your sense in N.I. is that I just read about how gov’t spending there is something like two-thirds (or three-quarters) of local GDP, which means that the dropoff shouldn’t be nearly as dramatic as in, say, south England. Still, for sure we’re all toast.
“Though what’s weird about your sense in N.I. is that I just read about how gov’t spending there is something like two-thirds (or three-quarters) of local GDP, which means that the dropoff shouldn’t be nearly as dramatic as in, say, south England”
It’s the perception of the crisis and its potential effects which is different there. In terms of businesses closing and people actually being made unemployed it’s not that bad yet…but the average punter thinks tough times are most certainly round the corner and are cutting their cloth in preparation. In contrast in Hungarian Cloud Cuckoo Land we have had public sector workers being prepared to go on strike because their Xmas bonus would be cancelled next(!) December- they should instead have been thanking their lucky stars that they still have a job and hoping that the state will actually have enough money in the latter part of the year to pay them full-stop.
Here it, is I am getting nauseated!!!
For 8 years you folks have been telling us in America to mind our own business. So now that we are going to do that you complain about us taking care of ourselves. Last one out of Europe please turn out the lights.
I agree with Paul. Any similiarity to the rest of the world and HU reality is purely coincidental.
I was in Saturn (for illiterate Mawar, that’s an electronics chain IN HUNGARY, not the planet) over xMas and remarked to a friend that it was surprising how many people there were buying plasma tvs; moreso, that a few people on line were going for 2, not just 1. My friend sarcastically retorted that these people figure their going to have no money shortly, so they might as well spend what credit they have left.
Micro Economics appears to be a subject that perhaps 15-20 years ago was not covered too well. This would explain the difference with NI and the large number of FOREX loans, swingingly high HUF loan rates, over-priced (for the local market) real estate, insulting take home wage packets, and populist policies that are impossible to finance through the exchequer.
The population seems powerless over the political class (be they MSzP or Fidesz) and in combination all ignore the growing (inverted) “bubble”. Eventually there’ll have to be a correction. But what will it be?
Yep. Never ceases to amaze me the level of hypocrisy! Are you the literacy police? … shhh
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“In nine times out of ten, the slanderous tongue belongs to a disappointed person.”
- George Bancroft