The effects of the international economic crisis have been determining the potentialities and agenda of Hungarian politics since September, 2008. The issue of the crisis shall probably remain in the background of the domestic political agenda in the year 2009 as well. The parties have to adapt themselves to the newly evolved and continuously changing situation, for the lack of crucial decisions will result in an ongoing struggle to provide adequate answers to newly arising problems.
The most important question is how the Hungarian political elite will handle the crisis, particularly in light of the fact that the parliamentary elections are to take place in approximately a year. Will the minority government be able to take efficient measures or will it only deal with problems on the surface? Will the opposition support unpopular government proposals?
The socialist government is under great pressure, and the crisis is working against it too. On the other hand, an efficient crisis management could improve the socialists’ popularity, from which they could profit in the 2010 elections.
The European Parliamentary elections in June will be the other crucial political event of the year 2009. The EP election will be a great opportunity for parties to survey their popularity with voters and test their strategies before the parliamentary elections in 2010. Mandates in the national parliament – and political survival – is what is currently at stake for the left-leaning SZDSZ, center-right MDF and far-right Jobbik, for the failure to reach good results in the EP elections would increase their chances of not attaining parliamentary mandates next year.
Gyurcsány’s head is on the chopping block now, too, for a bad result for the Socialists could challenge the whole party and the PM in the first place, whereas a close battle with leading opposition party Fidesz would consolidate Gyurcsány’s position, who could thus promote the issue of reforms more efficiently.
