If the ongoing global financial crisis has already taught us one lesson, it is that you should be on guard whenever “the experts” say that some event that seems unlikely to happen is guaranteed not to happen. Because, as we have seen, such “black swan” events which scramble all the conventional wisdom have a way of occurring more often than the supposedly very smart people who together generate the conventional wisdom like to admit.
For whatever reason, the people responsible for generating the conventional wisdom about Hungarian politics have apparently decided that a non-political “government of experts” is a rank impossibility. And I think they may turn out to be as wrong as the bankers and finance officials who a year ago thought the worst threat the world economy faced was a couple of quarters of negative growth, and some minor strains in the financial sector.
The primary reason I think the odds for a temporary, non-party “crisis cabinet” are significant and growing by the day is the increasingly obvious bankruptcy of Hungary’s political class, and its ongoing alienation from voters. As in any other country, the normal rules of political order would be temporarily suspended when no one but the politicians believes they are benefiting from these rules, and the politicians lose the will to impose their will on everyone else. We are not quite there, but we are awfully close.
That most in the Hungarian “commentariat” would not see this isn’t surprising, as they are prime beneficiaries of the current alignment of political forces, just as the credit-rating agencies had no interest in entertaining the idea that the system in which they had been working might be suddenly revealed as bankrupt and promptly swept away.
As for how exactly a “government of experts” might come into office, and who might lead it, a few scenarios come to mind.
First, it strikes me as eminently plausible that whenever the next general election is held – i.e., either on schedule next spring, or sometime earlier – a gain by the far-right Jobbik and a return to parliament by the center-right MDF would deprive Fidesz of a working majority on the right. Fidesz would be unable to do even a murky back-room deal with Jobbik without threatening massive sanction from the EU, which in the current situation could lead to utter economic collapse. Meanwhile, the MDF and Fidesz have probably taken their blood-feud too far for either side to agree to a normal coalition. (And this is assuming that, if Jobbik were to make it in, a Fidesz-MDF combo was enough.) Moreover, I can’t help but wonder if Fidesz truly has the will and desire to take over, given how thankless the job of government is likely to be over the next few years. They must be smart enough to know that whoever is in charge during this time will have to dispense some pretty awful reform medicine – despite their constant public claims to the contrary – or run the risk of an even deeper collapse. Instead of frantically trying to put together a coalition that is in any case unlikely to result in more than one term (and an unhappy one at that) Fidesz would be best served by allowing the inevitable movement towards a non-political government proceed.
As for whom the “knight in shining armor” might be, I would say the range of options is broader than most experts might think. In addition to the already-tested formula of a central banker – à la Josef Tošovský in the Czech Republic in ’97-’98 – we are likely to hear the names of business managers and experts without any notable background in government. I wouldn’t even rule out a government of experts led by a non-experts, especially now that everyone is starting to figure out how little our experts seem to understand.
I concur!
Hungarian experts in politics, bad politics maybe, but it will be some time before they become experts, the lack of non-bias education and experience are just two reasons. Greed and a social status are others. The only way for Hungary to get out of its hole is to hire non-Hungarian, actual experts to help manage various aspects of the government. The one thing that is greatly lacked in Hungary, in business and government, is the ability to actually manage effectively. Thus the continuous decline of many businesses and the government. It’s time that they swallow their pride and pig headedness and start looking for consultants, coaches and managers from abroad.
Hungarians as a whole typically do not like change, but like it or not, change is and must happen. The current situation can be made a very positive one for the Republic and lead to growth with the right assistance.
Hello Erik and “HMMM”,
I appreciate the observation that the ability to effectively manage in business and govt. is a bit lacking in Hungary. It’s the sad result of our past history. Previous regimes and social systems here kept the people marginalised and ruled from above. Like it or not, I continue to see post 1989 Hungarians as somewhat similar to newly freed slaves; they can do a lot more now than their ancestors, but it’s freedom they are unprepared for and not likely to fully take advantage of.
What was there for the Old Hungarians to “manage”? Where would they have gotten the experience? Under communism, things were run by “maximum leaders” appointed and supported by Moscow. Prior to communism, most of the land was owned by a few people. The old Magyars generally did not start corporations; what large scale capitalism there was, was generally run by foreigners and “non-Hungarians”. What did our grandparents know about running anything? Individual initiative and innovation was unwelcome under both communistic and feudal orders.
Good managment instinct and practices evolve in a country where free enterprise and the legal safeguards to regulate it have been in place for a number of generations, combined with an educational system that supports the same. That sure rules us out! Only time can heal and fix this state of affairs. The habits and mentality of slavery, which with us lasted almost a 1000 years, are still too deeply ingrained to go away overnight.
“That sure rules us out! Only time can heal and fix this state of affairs. The habits and mentality of slavery, which with us lasted almost a 1000 years, are still too deeply ingrained to go away overnight.”
Quite correct, Mr Farkas. On a positive note.
I belive Hungarians learn quickly and, given the opportunity, can achieve great things.
First,though, they must fight the corrupt practices in local and central government. Re-write some of the rules that protect politicians.
It is a breath of “fresh air” that so many contributors on these pages allude to the problems that are so entrenched in Hungarian society and need to be changed. Quickly!!!
Thank you very much Wolfpack
My apparent and sometimes harsh critiques of Magyars and their lousy history are undergirded by the most profound love, patriotism and best wishes. How can we get better and stronger if we are not real about what went wrong with us in the past? I think there is an unrealized strength and splendour in our people. May the future help us to stand on the shoulders of our ancestors! The weak of this world blame others for their misfortunes. The strong find fault with themselves and move on.
Yes Mr. Farkas, I agree that the history of Hungary is the majority of the problem and Hungarians have had a very short time to try and figure out how to make the system work.
The older generations do not want any more change, they have seen enough, the younger generations are caught up in the pursuit of material items at whatever cost. And, unfortunately, western civilization has had a very negative impact on the entire region.
Internationally, I believe, there has been a higher ratio of famous Hungarians through the ages then any other country. Many have changed their names but in the fields of science, arts and medicine Hungarians have excelled, unfortunately most from abroad.
Hungarians will get it right, but in todays globalized world, time is not an element that can be wasted and there is no shame in asking for help from the right people.
All in all, I believe that many people agree with all the comments here today. The question is, how can we help the process? Maybe the first step should be to find a way to educate without bias and based on only the facts.
Bless you “HMMM”,
I only wish I could adress you by a more personal name, but no matter, the real lovers of Hungary are always apprarent to me on this website, no matter what usernames they resort to.
Certainly, Hungary has drawn the ‘short straw’,
many times in the past.
But, it is the twenty-first century, and dwelling too much on historical events will achieve nothing.
A declaration for change.. a manifesto that clearly sets out all the reforms that need to be implemented that will put Hungary back on the road to recovery is what is required.
Conscripting the usual suspects to do it like Bokros and his team-mates will not work.
I repeat: Hungary has the talent. It needs to be harnessed in order to achieve success. In fact, so much talent, it’s a disgrace that things have sunk so low here at the moment.
It will have to be a concerted and, united effort, from every area of Hungarian society to ensure success.
A Man, A Plan, A Programme. Who? Where? When?
Erik, it ain’t gonna happen.
To start with, the politicians now in power are not going to “lose the will to impose their will on everyone else”. The financial crisis has given Gyurcsány more leeway than ever to introduce the large-scale reforms he had in mind as long ago as the “lies” speech. That he wasn’t brave enough, or didn’t have the support from his party or society, to enact reforms sooner is part of why Hungary is in its current mess. Now that more people have woken up to economic reality, he may feel that more are coming round to his point of view. So he’s not about to go away.
Secondly, a return to parliament by the MDF looks less likely than ever now that the party is disintegrating. And whatever vote Jobbik gets, it will not be enough to deprive Fidesz of a majority. As the polls stand, Fidesz has a realistic chance of winning a two-thirds majority, with which it can change the constitution. No politician, certainly not Viktor Orbán, is going to pass up that chance.
So, yes, Fidesz does have the will and desire to take over (otherwise, why are they in politics?) They may well be saddled with a disastrous economy, but they can spend four years blaming that on the previous government – as anybody else would.
@Desmond: Aha – but you miss the point. I am not saying that a “non-political” government is *likely* to happen, i.e. offering 1:1 or better odds in its favor. I am saying the odds of it – or another unexpected outcome – happening are higher than believed by the people who spend their time focusing very closely on the day-to-day of the local political circus. What it comes down to is the fact that the politicians, analysts, academics, and journalists who dominate political debate in Hungary are an exceedingly unimaginative and close-minded lot who will be the last to see a genuinely big change coming. And, by the way, when I say “really big change” I mean something much more dramatic than simply a non-partisan caretaker government – I mean something like the total collapse of the Hungarian economy and state, and governance of the country being temporarily put in the hands of (for example) an EU proconsul. Go ahead and scoff, but dramatic and unforeseen changes like this confound the “experts” all the time.
Sorry if I misunderstood you, Erik. But thanks for giving me permission to go ahead and scoff!
Erik: I am not a disbeliever. Your comments should not be taken lightly.
The ‘lightweights’ who dismiss your arguments do so at their peril.
It is refreshing to read well-articulated points of view, whether one agrees with them, or not.
I am interested to see that in Hungary the idea of
Expert
Government has received some consideration.
Perhaps you can show the world the way forward.
A really attractive idea just about this. Study and don’t forget – if you have to work and study at the same time, there are old pros who are ready to guidance you with your essays when you under time compression. I’d recomend in this case the most predictable amongs thesis where you can order custom content.
All people deserve very good life time and business loans or short term loan can make it better. Just because freedom relies on money state.