Népszabadság examines a number of possible scenarios regarding a change of prime minister today.
The liberal daily first examines what could happen in the event of the Socialist Party being unable to find a candidate who is supported by another parliamentary caucus:
1.1 The no-confidence motion will not be submitted to Parliament and the present cabinet will remain in office. Constitutionally there is no obstacle to the cabinet remaining in office, although as the incumbent prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány has already announced his intention to leave his post, he could find himself in an untenable position.
1.2 The prime minister resigns and the cabinet’s mandate ceases. In this case the president will have to propose a new prime ministerial candidate. If the candidate obtains a simple majority in parliament, he or she could remain in office until next year. If no prime minister is elected within 40 days, or if no candidate can obtain a House majority, the president can dissolve parliament. In this scenario early elections would have to be held within three months.
1.3 Gyurcsány does not resign. In this case the decision would be in the hands of the Free Democrats. Chairman Gábor Fodor has promised that unless a candidate who is acceptable to them is found, they could support the opposition’s proposal to dissolve parliament, which would mean new elections.
1.4 The prime minister does not resign and a majority of MPs do not vote to dissolve parliament in a first round ballot. This would lead to a political stalemate in which the opposition would attempt to put the proposal on the agenda whenever possible. Parliament and the cabinet would be unable to function, although it could not be ruled out that the Socialist Party may ensure a majority through occasional coalitions for shorter or longer periods.
Népszabadság then examines the possible scenarios if the Socialist Party found a candidate who is supported by at least one other parliamentary caucus:
2.1 The no-confidence motion is submitted to parliament and the candidate for prime minister is elected with a simple majority within a maximum of eight days. In this case the mandate of his or her predecessor – and that of the cabinet – will cease, and a new cabinet must be established, for which the mandate would expire in the spring of 2010.
2.2 The no-confidence motion is submitted to the House but is not supported by over 50% of MPs. The cabinet would then remain in office.
2.3 The prime minister resigns and the president would have to call early elections.
2.4 The prime minister does not resign. In this case the Free Democrats will have the final say, or the Socialists could experiment with occasional coalitions.
