Sacrifice of Gyurcsány leads to severe case of “leader asymmetry”

The political struggles of the upcoming year in Hungary will be deeply impacted by the fact that the left’s “sacrificing” of its leader – former premier Ferenc Gyurcsány – and the subsequent elevation of Gordon Bajnai to prime minister has overturned a delicate balance which has existed for the past five years.

Fidesz leader (and former prime minister) Viktor Orbán and Gyurcsány may have very different personalities and dispositions. But in some ways they are very much alike – enough that, while Gyurcsány was in power, there was what you might call “leader symmetry.” Both Orbán and Gyurcsány are “leading” personalities, and their capabilities and communicational competence place them on the same level. Both are good at playing with voters’ emotions, but what is even more important in the game of power-politics is that both are exceptionally well-suited for demonization. The strengthening of emotions felt towards the leader of the rival party is the classic and most trusted instrument of negative PR so often used in Hungary.

As the left is highly unlikely to renew its political credo or otherwise offer an attractive alternative to the opposition in the brief time before the next election, and the right – in order to maximize its votes – is likely to keep its real intentions under wraps, it is not hard to predict that negative campaigning (and especially demonization) will play a bigger role than ever during the run-up to the elections.

What enhances the importance of the asymmetry which came about is exactly the fact that the political right lost its most mobilizing and “cohesional” factor with Gyurcsány’s departure. This puts Fidesz at a temporary disadvantage, as Bajnai – even when surrounded with everything from austerity programs to the geese let loose by enraged protesters – will never be as divisive a personality as his predecessor. His personality and “self interpretation” make it unlikely that the fear and emotion aimed at him personally can be turned into several hundred thousand election ballots.

The same can hardly be said for his opponent. This is true even if Viktor Orbán has done a lot in the past five years in order to seem less “devilish,” and thus weaken the emotions and fears directed towards him. In 2006 he changed his image completely, refined his rhetoric and style to a great extent and adjusted his appearances to fit the concept of the “new majority.” Naturally incoherent elements fell into this newly constructed image as well – for example, the speeches following the Öszöd scandal – which amongst others is due to the fact that Orbán has to keep together his own camp and try to get MSZP voters to abstain from voting at the same time. These two aspirations often seem to be incompatible, which can ease the rekindling of the anti-Orbán feelings for the left.

The balance of the leaders has tipped over, which has created a new situation that in several ways will force Fidesz to rethink and change the leitmotifs of its attacks. But tougher challenges await the left as well, not only because they are in a never before seen disadvantage compared to their opponents, but also given that they “laid down their cards” – in this case Gordon Bajnai – too early in the game. Before his selection Bajnai was actually the “secret favorite” of the Socialists for the prime minister’s post in the 2010 elections. The script might have called for an election in which Gyurcsány would have stayed at the head of the party while Bajnai stood for prime minister. But this version was rewritten last month, leaving a situation in which the goat stayed hungry while the cabbage was eaten as well. So while unlike Fidesz the Socialists currently do not have the liability of a decisive “hate figure” able to mobile its opponents, this is only because they remains without a party leader or candidate for prime minister.