Hungary’s main opposition Fidesz-KDNP would have acquired two-thirds majority support if the general elections had been held instead of the European Parliamentary elections on June 7, dailies Nepszabadsag and Magyar Nemzet reported on Friday quoting pollster Nezopont Institute.
The Fidesz-KDNP alliance would have acquired 269 mandates as against 56 mandates for the governing Socialists, 46 for the radical nationalist Jobbik and 15 for the conservative MDF party, Nezopont said. Only two Socialists would have had the chance to get mandates as individual candidates in a second round, they added.
The Socialists would have won mandates mostly from their national list and not from the regional lists, the institute said.
The calculations were based on the assumption that votes for the national list at the EP elections would correspond to regional lists at a general election. In the case of individual candidates, the differences between votes submitted for the party list and for individuals at the 2006 elections were taken into consideration.
In reality it was just 250 000 individual voters more that voted for Fidesz/Jobbik in the EP 2009, than voted for a similar right-wing vote in the General Elections in 1998.
1998 was MIEP last good election. Most of MIEP moved over to Jobbik later.
To believe that the voters that would not like to vote for Fidesz/Jobbik in the next election *and* has stayed at home since every election/referendum after the National Election April 2006, would still stay at home, is probably a bit optimistic.
The prospect of Victor Orban having 75% in the next Parliament, with or without the support of Jobbik, will probable mobilise the resent non-voters in a much higher degree. The next election will be about the economy, so that will people much easier connect to and feel it is important in their daily life.
@Viking
Yes, totally agree with you observation about voter numbers. It would not surprise me if there were very high numbers turning out in the General election next year. Fidesz will obviously do well but won’t get 3/4 of the vote and the socialists and SZDSZ will get a drubbing. Might we see the re-emergence of the MDF as a stabilizing force, especially now that Bokros is not going to Brussels.
I truly believe that all or many socialist parties in countries across Europe will end up in the wilderness for the next decade or so what with so many anti-EU MEPs being elected last week. But that is another story.
MC, please tell your other ‘story’, re anti-EU MEPs. I cannot work out what they are about. There are too few of them to form a faction with an audible voice in the EP, even if that forum can be said to have some sort of substantive role. I know of only one who reported back to the nation (UK) with EU fraud allegations, but he was personally discredited even before he took up his seat. Now, it seems that the Hungarian MEPs who will be sitting with the Euro-sceptic block (only the JOBBIK ones?) are squeaky-clean. They could report back plausibly. But will they be inclined to do that? And is it good or bad that they do/do not? And generally, do you see good or its opposite in EU membership? (I am inclined to suspect the opposite.)
I have just come upon something I keep reading but failing to believe I’m seeing: Something called ‘European Voice’ is making this claim: ‘… Jobbik – a brown-shirt-wearing extremist outfit …’: http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/european-parliament-elections-results-in-brief/65143.aspx . (Look under the sub-heading ‘Lowland continental Europe’.)
“European Voice” may have misspelled MSZP, or just revealed the secret: MZSP stands for Magyar Zsido Part?
Well spotted, Godot! I missed that one, flummoxed, no doubt, by the ‘brown-shirt-wearing’ bit. (What might ‘European Voice’ stand for, do you think?)
mc,
I do not really see the connection to the bad result the ESP group did from 27.6% to 21,9% and the increase of anti-EU MEPs?
The biggest group is still the EPP with 35,9% (down from 36,7%).
Both ESP and EPP are hardly in the anti-EU camp, so together they have 57,8%, together with the ALDE 10,9% you have 68,7%, which qualifies for 2/3rd majority.
Of course voting in the EP do not always follow party groups, but more national lines and if there is an environmental touch to it, the Greens/EFA normally go for it.
The members of the ESP has been doing badly on national level the last year, like Germany, Sweden, France, Hungary of course. I think their problem is more idealogical, they are more been seen as administrators of the big deficit ‘Nanny-State’, then coming with new ideas. In the mean time many members of the EPP have taken a turn to convince people that they will defend the ‘Nanny-State’, just improve it a bit.
On the other hand the more left parties, like the Linke in Germany, is gaining grounds on traditional ESP areas, so they need in general to find something that will improve their rating on a national level. As being a Swede livving in Hungary and also knowing something about German politics, I personally see 3 countries where the traditional ESP goes down without the visible ability to do anything to change that.
Though I do not think that one can equal that to parties like Hungarian Jobbik will rise all over Europe, the spectrum is big for others to come in
Wonderful, once again shows the root of all of Hungary’s problems: the voting public. Forget your Jewish/Catholic/Protestant/Muslim/Gypsy/Armenian/Greek/Romanian conspiracies for once and take a look at the big picture. 20 years of democratic freedom, and we’ve constantly elected one idiot after the next, regardless of political affiliation. Apparently 989 years of authoritian government was not helpful in teaching Hungarians how to make their votes count or indeed who to vote for. Maybe we are like the Arabs and only understand rule by the iron fist, whether it is King, Emperor, Dictator…
I can notice that you are experienced at your field! I am launching a blog soon, and this information will be very useful for me… thanks for the help and wishing you all the success in your business. x-D