A recent ban on the paramilitary Hungarian Guard could strengthen the grouping in the short term and make it more difficult to keep it in check, analysts said on Tuesday.
The short-term gain in support for the radical nationalist Jobbik party, the Guard’s founder, could turn into a woe and pose a danger for Jobbik itself by becoming unmanagable in the longer run, an analysis by think tank Political Capital said.
The paramilitary organisation was recently banned by an appelate court for their black uniform, military-type trainings and racially-motivated marches which generated fear especially among the Roma population. The Guard has already held two demonstrations against the ban, one of which ended in a clash with police, and has vowed to reorganise itself in a number of inventive ways.
The Hungarian Guard is likely to continue holding marches regularly to exert its presence, “testing and provoking” legislators and political actors, the analysts said. They predicted that Jobbik’s political control over the Guard’s activities would lax in the future.
The ban has put Jobbik under considerable pressure, as the Hungarian Guard’s role as a “bridge” between the party and the most extreme, splintered groups comes under strain. Jobbik leadership has tried hard to prevent a breakaway, with Jobbik leader Gabor Vona attending a sit-down against the Guard’s ban, the analysts added.
On the other hand, the government’s firm stand against the Guard reflected in the ban and its ensuing implementation backed by police action could help return voters to the ruling Socialist party, the analysts said, adding that polls show a majority of Hungarians approving of the ban.
The main opposition Fidesz party has already encountered difficulties with the strengthening of Jobbik as seen in their good results in the European elections in June, and the ban on the Hungarian Guard could bring more uncertainty to the party’s ranks. Although Fidesz has distanced itself from Jobbik and said it would not enter coalition with them if given the chance, there are overlaps in important issues for the two parties where a fight to pull voters continues, the analysts said.
And of course these people are actually paid to produce this kind of (entirley evidence free) propaganda.
The only question remains whether Politics.hu are also paid to publicise it. Would it surprise you?
@hazafi: …or whether you are being paid to troll sites like this adding your own (entirley evidence free) propaganda?
@Erik
Well that’s the difference between us. I do for conviction what you do for a wage. Whose motive is the purer?
The language of this post is the evidence for its propagandist nature.
e.g. “could”, “could”, “considerable pressure”: no evidence, “tried hard to prevent”: no evidence – not even a biased quote to support it!, “could help return voters to the ruling Socialist party”…
wtf??
Polling Data:
Fidesz APR09 64% JUN09 58% (6% loss)
MSZP APR09 23% JUN09 22%
Jobbik APR09 4% JUN09 10% (6% gain)
So the evidence shows Fidesz losing to Jobbik. How will voters then “return” to the path of socialism?
Your own non-denial of being a paid mouthpiece for this deliberately misleading rubbish, is the evidence for your own propaganda.
What evidence can you bring to bear to support your case? Oh that’s right. You’d never stoop so low as to provide a balanced or supported case, would you?
You much prefer calling people trolls. Nice.
@Beju: It probably isn’t the case that Erik is paid to print this stuff, but the other way around. MTI is the government news service, whose stories you can buy: http://english.mti.hu/default.asp?menu=4&theme=1
You could contact them and pay to publish their stories too.
The other main source (less so these days is HATC – Hungary around the clock) followed by the occasional post fully written by one of their team. Just read the bit that say ‘by’ after the title and you will know who to be angry with.
@Vándorló
I’ve read that excuse here before, and it’s just sooo convenient.
“We didn’t author the b*llshit, we’re just repeateding it.”
Not good enough I’m afraid. You don’t get to say you’re immune just because you are repeateing propaganda. MTI’s duty is to produce it, it should be someone’s duty to question it.
Also, please notice how I have neither:
(a) Called for people to be put up against the wall and shot,
(b) Dismissed any cogent criticism as being semitic,
or, (c) Used tortuously incoherent English grammar.
Nope. I’m not Beju.
@hazafi: Apologies, I didn’t even look at your name, I just jumped to conclusions when I started writing, but you use sentences with full clauses. Anyway, apologies, I was just pointing out the obvious.
But honestly, if you are concerned about this then why not start your own blog? There are a million places to publish one at no cost to yourself except your time. You can then do all the editing you want.
I suspect that they don’t edit the stuff, because that takes time and effort and this along with realdeal.hu, caboodle.hu, pestiside.hu are a sideline rather than an enterprise – as far as appearances go.
The main point is that Erik is unlikely to be making money out of this, but paying for the privilege of attracting such waifs and strays that wander by and mouth off such as us.
You have done a pretty good job of providing the editorial that you believe was originally lacking, so the end result is much the same, no?
@Vándorló
“Why not start your own blog?”
Don’t have the time. Got a job.
Do it in my spare time you say? That’s precisely why I wouldn’t do it! Because I wouldn’t then be able to dedicate the time to the critical examination of evidence. What? You say Erik doesn’t have the resources either. Well then his site shouldn’t pretend to be the “Intelligent Source for…” etc.
Journalists have a really important job.
Parties and Governments (and the different organizations that are funded by them – e.g. think tanks) are in the business of churning out lies. Well somewhere between lies at worst and spun truth at best. We rely on the press to examine this material, and tease out the possibly true from the palpably false, NOT act as a virtual Xerox machine for it!
What would be the point of authoring a(nother) website primarily dedicated to the mere repetition of state sponsored propaganda? I really don’t know. Over to you Erik…
If Hungarian Guard was smart it would rename it’s self. Every time they ban the oranization they just rename it’s self. Also use a different uniform if they ban one uniform. If if that doesn’t work use no uniform, hold rallies dressed as normal people, instead of in uniform.
I mean there are always going to be ways to get around bans. They ban a uniform in public, then don’t use any uniform just come as normal Hungarian citizens. What Hungary is doing against he Guard, reminds me of Iran is doing to the opposition in Iran.
I think it’s wrong and unfree that the Guard was banned, it just shows that the leading political forces are controlled by something greater then the Hungarian people.
Fidesz APR09 64% JUN09 58% (6% loss)
MSZP APR09 23% JUN09 22% (1% gain)
Jobbik APR09 4% JUN09 10% (6% gain)
Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)Apr. 2009 4%
Jun. 2009 3% (1% loss)
It seems like both the two leading parties are being effected by how well their smaller counterparts do. Jobbik gained 6% while Fidesz lost 6%. MSZP gaines 1% while SZDSZ lost 1%.
@free
“Also use a different uniform if they ban one uniform. If if that doesn’t work use no uniform,”
That’s the plan! Did you not know?
The Hungarian Guard are secretly being funded from overseas… by the International Nudist Movement.
The MSZP will have to ridiculously outlaw successive items of clothing. (Ironic when you think about all the stuff about the Burka in the West – how people should be freer to wear what they like etc.) Until nudity prevails!
I intend to voice my oposition at the attempted banning stage of sexy lingerie.
@Hazafi: I agree with you whole heartedly about the quality of journalism in Hungary and their potential role in the power-broking game, but where are these journalists? The power lies in the hands of so-called data protectionists. As you may know, the judiciary all went on holiday today for 6 weeks – lucky bastards (joining the library staff which all broke up last week). So reasoned argument and getting at information needed and protecting communal interests are all subverted by bone-idle laziness to fight the basic fabric of the bureaucracy rather than constantly trying tho overthrow it (and the power elite). What, after all, is the point of the pissing Gárda? This is just another way for people to believe that democracy can be outsourced to another group of people who seem to give a shit, because they certainly can’t. Democracy is boring and involves filling out complaint form after complaint form and slowly fighting for a response for 2 or more years. And when thousands do it, the bastards eventually get the point.
You don’t have time, but the Gárda have enough for all of us, is that it?
As for the English language sites – like this (and Erik’s other sites), xpatloop and Budapesttimes – together they do a reasonable job of portraying the state of things – which is no easy task. And considering the maximum size of their audiences I’d say they put in more than enough effort for the potential returns – monetary or otherwise.
According to the Party Propaganda Office (MTI):
“The paramilitary organisation was recently banned by an appelate court for their black uniform, military-type trainings and racially-motivated marches which generated fear especially among the Roma population.”
What’s the problem with black uniforms? Are we discriminating here? I thought black was beautiful, ask these guys:
http://tinyurl.com/kjmoyj
As for “paramilitary” and “military-style training”, it’s just plain bullshit, designated to make the Garda into something it isn’t. MTI is lying as usual.
And don’t forget the magic word: “fear”.
I’d call it baseless paranoia, Hungarians have a lot more reasons to fear gypsy crime than the other way around.
So much about the lying, lowlife bastards at MTI.
@hazafi: Look, if you think a story has a fact wrong, or is all PR BS, you should just… leave a comment explaining why something is incorrect or bent. Who knows, maybe the editors at MTI are even watching now and again, and will try to do a better job. That said, I don’t think you would know unbiased if it pinched you on your little girly-bottom
“pinched you on your little girly-bottom”
So Erik is out of the closet. Anyone else?
@Stan: Well, I didn’t want to say anything, but given your frothing obsession with circumcised weenies…
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ…!
@Erik
”
“That said, I don’t think you would know unbiased if it pinched you on your little girly-bottom
Please re-read my comments. Where do you find bias?
Please. Tell me. Show me. I really would like to know…
The only difference I can detect bewteen my own pronouncments and yours/MTIs; is that mine come supported with evidence, and theirs/yours come supported with speculation. Er. That’s it.
Well, duh, yeah, it’s obvious which side of the spectrum I come from and which you/MTI come from. But nevertheless. Me: Facts. You/MTI: scare-mongering, speculation and distortion.
Please, feel free to prove me wrong. Cite some statistical data as I did, and as (surprise surprise) Political Capital, didn’t.
I’ve made my point with every comment, all you’ve done each time you’ve come back: is taken a cheap pop at me.
It’s clear to everyone.
Another example of intimidating black dress considered acceptable in Europe.
@hazafi: Are you kidding? You started off by accusing people (including me) of being paid propagandists, without offering *any* evidence. Meanwhile, you seem unable to even grasp the fact that the above story is about what some ANALYSTS said – and that IT’S AN ANALYST’S JOB TO GIVE THEIR OPINION. Just shut up and open your eyes a bit before you open your mouth.
Mr Hazafi,
Hungary is forbidden to allow Jobbik and the Magyar Guard to exist! ‘Nuff said!
@Erik
“Just shut up and open your eyes a bit before you open your mouth.”
Really, when you’re proven wrong you don’t take it well do you?
You and I both know that DESPITE YOUR SOCIOPATHIC RESORTING TO UPPERCASE analysis is not the same thing as opinion.
If it was, then you might as well just publish the ravings of any pub wino, as the gospel pronouncments of yet another state funded think-tank.
My evidence is superior to yours, because of my grasp of the English Language. Does teacher-man really have to point this out to you, baby? Ok. Check it out. Different words, mean different things. Feel free to take a time out if this staggeringly new concept: leaves you feeling light headed.
What makes analysis differ from opinion, are a variety of elements and characterisitics, none of which are contained in this article. It is therefore, only, opinion – and hence is worthy of about as much time and consideration as the world-is-flat, and if-I-close-my-eyes-something’s-no-longer-there type pronouncements of Red Eva’s acolyte, Odin’s Lost Eye, above… i.e. none whatsoever.
Again, you and I both know, that this is not the impression the article’s wording is designed to give.
It is thus, thoroughly misleading to describe it as analysis. And one is then perfectly justified in questioning the motives of the individual who wishes to perpetrate this deception. Is this now clear enough for you to understand?
Odin:
“Hungary is forbidden to allow Jobbik and the Magyar Guard to exist!”
Who cares? What are you gonna do about it?
I forbid the EU to exist. How’s that?
Stan,
You may have missed a slight distinction here:
Hungary is a sovereign nation. You are not.
Hungary can make and enforce laws. You cannot.
When you look into a mirror what do you see? A map of greater Hungary? Stan the great? Szent Istvan?
Hungary is the yo-yo on the end of a rather long piece of string. Manipulated by every agency
where the begging bowl has been.
Israel, America, EU, IMF, to name but a few.
Dyed-in-the-wool old commies have sold us out to
the politically correct and economically incorrect
organisations in order to enhance their own bank balances. This, whilst depriving the solid citizens of Hungary, much-needed financial help.
The cancer that is now deep in the bowels of Hungary has rendered any cure impossible.
The surgeon, Bajnai, is a thick-headed clown who
acts as a conduit for “laundered” money to pass safely into the offshore bank accounts of private companies.
Political Capital. What a bunch of losers pretending to be analysist. They’d probably spend about three minutes at any self respecting think tank outside of Hungary before being escorted out by security with their binders in boxes.
Only in Hungary.
It is funny that no one of the comments have touched the central issue here:
- How will Vona keep control?
I have argued this case since the beginning of the Garda, then the original Garda – the Italian Blackshirts and the German Brownshirts had basic problems in being controlled bz their political parties.
Vona has tried to solve this problem bz being the founder and “owner” of both Jobbik and Magyar Garda.
Now when Magyar Garda is no more, basically “anyone” can challenge Vona with setting up a competing/complementing organisation.
That there are differences between Jobbik and ex-Magyar Garda is no secret. There has even been public expulsions.
In the short run Jobbik will have control, but in the end the political arm always looses out to its more ‘action-oriented’ part. Study history (which is funny then Vona is a professional Historian) and check how it has worked in Spain and Ireland the last 2-3 generations.
Screaming ‘propaganda’ just shows that Jobbik is on its way down.