August 13th, 2009

Szonda-Ipsos poll puts Fidesz support at 63%; MSZP below 20%

Fidesz has 63% support among decided party voters, the Socialists 18% and Jobbik 12%, a Szonda-Ipsos poll found.

The Democratic Forum had 2%, and the Free Democrats and Politics Can Be Different 1% each. The Christian Democrats have negligible support, and other parties 2%. Undecided voters constitute 39%.

The poll suggests that Fidesz followers are potential Jobbik voters. Jobbik is mostly favoured by people in their twenties and thirties, amongst whom they have the backing of 16%, twice as much as the Socialists. Jobbik is mainly rebuffed by Socialist voters.

Jobbik has 10% backing among middle-aged people, while the Socialists have 21% support in this age group.

The Socialists have 39% support among the over 60s, whereas Jobbik has only 6%.

Half of Jobbik devotees consider themselves conservative, one-third centrist and one in six liberal, whereas Fidesz supporters have professed liberals, centrists and conservatives in equal proportion.

The poll was conducted on a survey of 1,500 adults from August 3-9.

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22 Comments

  1. Viking says:

    ‘one in six Jobbik devotees consider themselves liberal’
    Wow, they really understood the essence of Jobbik’s policies, where ‘anti-liberalism’ is written all over the place.
    It either shows how total use-less these polls are, or how volatile the Jobbik-voters are.
    Jobbik today, because it is ‘cool’, and the Munkaspart tomorrow, because it is ‘even cooler’.

  2. Sophist says:

    Viking,
    Don’t worry, its no worse then anywhere else: in the UK, the most radical prime minister in my lifetime called herself a Conservative: the US the socialists call themselves liberals, and everybody calls everybody else fascists – we get the spill over from that one. Best of all who can forget Vladimir Zhirinovskzy’s Liberal Democratic party of Russia. Compare their platform with Jobbiks:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_of_Russia
    Meanwhile, for more intelligent opinion poll results, consider this:
    http://esbalogh.typepad.com/hungarianspectrum/2009/01/political-map-of-the-hungarian-population.html
    Which does confirm my supposition that there are actually no progressive liberals in Hungary. (Something Orban figured out in 1994). Must be tough for a progressive liberal Swede like youself.

  3. Nationalist says:

    What there are, are two ideologies that have dominated European politics for 40 years. 1. Laissez-faire Capitalism, and, 2. Socio-liberal Multi-culturalism. Both kinds of supporters exist in 90% of all political parties.
    This is how people define their own politics. For the first group, one’s politics depends on one’s answers to Economic questions. And anyone whose opinions radically differ is dismissed as a Communist. For the second group, your politics depends on how you answer socio-liberal questions. And anyone whose opinions radically differ is ultimately dismissed as a Fascist.
    But neither are true, and this is our political party Jobbik Hungary , party leader Gábor Vona’s is a genius. Because what he says is not only that both of these principles have been ruling essentially unopposed (in the EU) for 40 years, and are responsible for the mess we find ourselves in; but also, that there’s not a damn thing any European voter can do about it. (In both these statements – and in saying that Gypsies are responsible for the vast majority of crime and something needs to be desperately done about it – he is absolutely right. The gypsy crime issue is “more an attack on an underclass than a racial group.” Again it’s not ideology, or hate, or fear, or an unwillingness to stare demographic facts in the face: it’s just common sense.)
    Executive power now lies at the European level and the national voter is impotent to change the laws that matter.

  4. Nationalist says:

    It’s much easier to call Vona Gabor a Nazi or a Haider-shagger than to address these points: because they are valid ones
    In such a circumstance where there is a trans-national status-quo which nobody can change, and which operates indifferent to the interests of individual nations there is in fact a correct dividing line to take i.e. asking yourself whether a particular policy, or act or law, is in line with your country’s national interests or against it. This is what Gabor Vona and Jobbik say.
    The reason why the BNP won in the North of England was NOT directly due to their campaign regarding Muslim rapes? And that the majority of London school children are now NOT from immigrant stock; and anyway it wouldn’t matter if they were, as that’s just fine because it wouldn’t radically alter the nation’s character anyway?

  5. Nationalist says:

    This is a cut and paste of bobscountybunker, I hope you don’t mind me using your work of Brilliance, what you wrote last week was truly political genius literature , thanks again.

  6. Sophist says:

    Nationalist,
    Now hold on there, the cut and paste from Bobs… includes a cut and paste from me,
    ““more an attack on an underclass than a racial group.”, which I think bobs.. attributed properly.
    I just want to make it clear that I probably do think the “socio-liberalism” does create underclasses, though I don’t necessary agree that “Gypsies are responsible for the vast majority of crime and something needs to be desperately done about it”.
    Firstly, the Hungarian government has made it impossible to know exactly how much crime they are responsible for, though it is pretty obvious they are responsible for a disproportionate number of crimes, underclasses usually are. Secondly, the crime problem in Hungary is not desperate, the UK has by some statistics twice as much crime. And thirdly, it far from clear that Gabor Vona’s idea of marching around gypsy-majority areas with uniforms and flags is actually going to help. I’d like more arrests, due process and punishments for all offenders irrespective of ethnic or class origins.

  7. Erik says:

    @Viking: Or Jobbik and the Munkaspart MERGE. :)

  8. Nationalist says:

    Simple if the police were doing there jobs then the Garda wouldn’t even be required, it’s only occurred in the last few years since 2006 riots were people have had enough of the Gypsy crimes in regional areas of Hungary and in certain areas of the city. People can’t leave there homes in the countryside because of theft from Gypsy crime, these are FACTS! I seen it myself in BALASSAGYARMAT, KARCAG, SALGÓTARJÁN, SZÉCSÉNY, Ipolytarnóc all these places, my friends that live in these villages live in there. I myself would get myself a shotgun for protection! dam well I would if I was living there and no hesitation on using it on any of these animals if they stepped near me , Booooooooom!!
    Crime is beyond control even the police are being bashed.

  9. Nationalist says:

    @Erik, see thats how small minded you are, your a sick case.

  10. Viking says:

    I think many people in many countries (including my own country of birth – Sweden) have a problem with policing on the country side and in certain ghetto-type of urban areas. It is like the weather, never will every one agree on everything.
    I always thought that neighbours co-operating in checking their are has been a good idea.
    This has though need to be balanced not to slide into a situation where one part of the ‘village’ check the remaining part.
    The latter is definitely the problem with the outlawed Magyar Garda, then outsiders come in and try to play ‘cops and robbers’. It will never heal any rifts inside a community, just make them worse.
    If Jobbik really wanted to make the situation better in relative crime-ridden areas, it should help the locals to organise themselves in the whole village, not just after political ideas.
    But that would of course not be possible to make black-and-white parades with and politically control.
    And they would actually need to speak *with* a Roma, not just shout at them.
    Jobbik’s wants to handle the Roma-issue as Israel treat their Palestinians, with the same love and tenderness.
    And that is going OK, not.

  11. bobscountrybunker says:

    And they would actually need to speak *with* a Roma, not just shout at them.
    Viking at August 13, 2009 8:33 PM
    —-
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_L5t62fJgY
    When will this condescending Scandinavian bullshit-merchant start looking up his facts, I wonder.
    Not any time soon I think.

  12. Sophist says:

    Nationalist,
    “People can’t leave there homes in the countryside because of theft from Gypsy crime”
    Well, in my wife’s godparents they did exactly that: they left their home of thirty years to move to a different part of the village where their neighbours weren’t gypsies. There was no threat of violent retaliation (cf. UK) just persistant small scale thefts, chickens, garden produce and tools. Like my (white and urban) cleaning lady, she’s come back from work a couple of times to find the neighbourhood gypsies making off with the TV, they grinned, put down the TV and made off back over the fence.
    “Crime is beyond control even the police are being bashed.”
    Curious about this one, do you have any figures for assaults against the police? In the UK apparently a police officer is assaulted every 20 minutes: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/5432

  13. Viking says:

    When will this condescending Scandinavian bullshit-merchant start looking up his facts
    bobscountrybunker at August 13, 2009 9:31 PM
    —-
    So now your link is the ‘facts’?
    Next we will see Vona and Kolompár hand in hand walking into the sunset?
    Nice picture, but sadly not reality.
    But nice that you found the link, I had missed that one. Now reality is not only a 51 second sound-bite on TV2.

  14. bobscountrybunker says:

    1. Viking scoffs at the Nationalist movement. And condescendingly ridicules the idea of representatives “actually speaking with the Roma, not just shouting at them.”

    Viking at August 13, 2009 8:33 PM
    2. Viking is presented with video showing three members of the Hungarian Guard talking quite amicably with three members of the Roma leadership.

    bobscountrybunker at August 13, 2009 9:31 PM
    3. His response is to say “So now your link is the ‘facts’?” and “Nice picture, but sadly not reality.” As if his own ideological opinion counts as a more valuable reality than the actuality all of us can verify through our own eyes and ears in the video.

    Viking at August 14, 2009 12:56 AM
    4. Or is he suggesting that TV2 (who would hardly be sympathetic to the Nationalist cause), have perpetrated some massive hoax against him; by showing extended footage of Roma and Nationalists sitting round a table together calmly speaking about the Gypsy problem?
    [5:15 – Reporter: “No-one raises their voice. Indeed there are times when each side has to concede that the other is right.”]

  15. bobscountrybunker says:

    5. Of course not. As we all know when reality counters Viking’s ideology, it is his interpretation of events which must always be right; and it is simple reality that must always be discarded. And when plainly presented with what evidently shows up his previous contention as ridiculous he assiduously avoids mentioning this “you’d never catch Nationalists actually speaking to Roma” rhetoric; as if us Hungarians were all too stupid to notice what he was doing.
    4. What an utter laughing stock Viking and his preposterous opinions are becoming.

  16. bobscountrybunker says:

    Oops, sorry about the last cardinal number folks. Which should of course have been “6.”

  17. Viking says:

    And when plainly presented with what evidently shows up his previous contention as ridiculous he assiduously avoids mentioning this “you’d never catch Nationalists actually speaking to Roma” rhetoric
    bobscountrybunker at August 14, 2009 3:14 AM

    I have no problems with 3 reps from Magyar Garda sitting down with 3 Roma and discussing in all peacefulness. That is probably a Good Thing(tm), but how much did this change:
    - the actual reality in that village and in the rest of the country?
    - the Roma’s perception of Magyar Garda as a Neo-Nazi group set out to vilify Roma for their own political gain?
    - the Magyar Gardist’s perception of Roma as thieving bastards?
    -
    If this meeting would be the trend in Hungary today, why is not Magyar Garda/Jobbik organising protection, in co-operation with the local possible victims, for the people who obviously are victims for the most serious crimes in Hungary today:
    - The seemingly random killing of Roma?

    Regardless who we think is behind this serial crime against the Roma minority in Hungary, Jobbik has a unique chance to show that they are not for discriminating Roma in general, but just want to stop crime in general, by helping the locals preventing more attacks.
    That policy actively executed, would be the reality, not just a photo-op.
    -
    And no, I did not know about that meeting, but I hope it was a step in the right direction. When is the next planned?
    -
    I claimed speaking *with* not *to* Roma. Big difference, Bob.

  18. Viking says:

    and bob,
    Will Jobbik join this initiative (from MTI):
    “Roma community to demonstrate against discrimination 8/14 08:25″?
    Or at least speak *with* the organisers to see if it is possible?

  19. Gheorghe Stoica says:

    Jobbik of Hungary should become friends and shake
    hand with the “New Right” (Noua Dreapata) of Romania
    (which is fact the good ol’ 1930s-”Iron Guard”-
    Legionary Movement).
    They share the same goals (finish off the Gypsises
    and the “communists”) and they share the same
    nationalist-fascist ideology (with the difference
    that the romanians want not only to exterminate the
    Gypsies but also the hungarian minority).
    Bright times ahead. Heil H.!

  20. hazafi says:

    @bobscountrybunker
    Well done!
    Viking’s bullshit revealed again.

  21. Viking says:

    Viking’s bullshit revealed again.
    hazafi at August 14, 2009 2:10 PM

    I assume you will also join the demonstration against discrimination of Roma, now when the ‘Nationalist’-message has been transformed by bob from ‘shout at’ to ‘speak to’ Roma?

  22. beju says:

    @viking,
    Are you not going to be there? Shame on you!
    Apparently your type plans a counter demonstration. Where the hell are you man? Get your admission immediately at ticketmasters.
    You’re all talk but action.
    Get your hind in gear swedie!