Public support for the main opposition Fidesz party was 31 percent among all voters in December, up 5 percent from the previous month, while the governing Socialists stayed at 9 percent, according to a Szazadveg-Forsense poll sent to MTI on Monday.
The survey, conducted on a sample of 1,000 voting-age adults from December 8 to 17, showed that 64 percent of decided voters would support Fidesz, 17 percent the Socialist Party and 9 percent the radical nationalist Jobbik, if parliamentary elections were held this weekend.
The small conservative MDF would garner three percent of the votes, green LMP two, while the liberal Free Democrats would be below one percent – all three far from the parliamentary threshold of 5 percent, the report said.
These polls are not very reliable. Many people are still afraid of Jews and Communists and do not want to be known as Jobbik supporters because they do not trust the polltakers. They wonder if the pollsters are collecting information on them as the AVO did. The EP polls predicted less than 5% for JOBBIK and much higher for MSZP and SZDSZ. JOBBIK got almost 14.77%; MSZP got 17.37% with SZDSZ 2.16%. The entire SZDSZ campaign on sliming JOBBIK backfired. If the pollsters are off as much as they were before, JOBBIK should get more votes than MSZP. That would do for 2010…
Dear Mark,
That is a very important point about polls, that need to be understood by those coming from nations with a more fortunate political history. There is still a lot of paranoia in Hungary, and people don’t trust “poll takers”, feeling that they are in cahoots with authorities who are linked to a totalitarian past.
There was someone, a purported young lady on the thread commemorating the 1956 revolution, who asked for emails from the posters here. She claimed to be a poli-sci student from Kansas, studying at a Budapest university working on her thesis. I threw cold water in her face by warning everybody here not to trust such an individual and to give out no emails. She wrote back expressing shock at my suspicion level. I set her stright. “This ain’t Kansas”! She’s got a lot of “poli-sci” to learn.
I can understand perhaps people being afraid of Communists when speaking to pollsters, but are there really that many Hungarians “afraid of Jews”? What, are there people in their late 90′s “spooked” about early 20th Century Jewish activities, or has that Simon Perez speech about “jewish investment” got them running for the bomb shelters?
Mark, maybe it’s time for you to seek some professional help about YOUR “fear of Jews”… They’re not that scary, really!
In fact a lot of them are very accomplished scientists, artists and intellectuals… something you very clearly wish very hard YOU could be! Maybe you should learn more about the culture, you might learn something… not saying you’ll actually INVENT something valuable like they have blessed the world with over and over, but you might get some valuable insight once you are able to overcome your fears…
Maybe try a good Jewish shrink who specializes in counter-conditioning. You’ll be inventing valuable devices, creating art/literature/music, and with a little luck you may even be a prominent academic in short order!
The horrors of Jewish Rakosi’s AVO will take long to erase from the collective memory of Hungarian people. There has never been anything that brutal. People should not make fun of it unless they feel just as flippant about Hitler’s party.
Well??????
It would probably take a genius like Sigmund Freud to find out what really goes on in Bob&Law&Marks crazy brains…
Dear Jackass, What exactly does Rákosi’s religion have to do with any of the crimes against the Hungarian people he committed? More than that, as a die-hard communist, he turned his back on religion. I really don’t understand how you associate one’s religion with communism since they were almost entirely atheists.
Dear holocaust denier C’est Moi,
You define who is a Jew by a religious test and cut down the number of Jews Hitler snuffed to just a few hundred thousand. Lucky for you, holocaust denier that Lendvai’s proposal did not pass because you would pay a heavy price for denying the 6 million Jewish victims. Lendvai will get you…
Mark,
I dare you to repeat your various anti-Jewish rants in the face of an actual Jewish person. I’ll bet you wouldn’t have the nerve. Then again you’d probably need actual friends to have people to converse with.
Please tell us, do you have the stones to bring this stuff up to real Jewish people in real life? Hm? I would like to hear the results of such an encounter, were you to actually have the stones to do so. But of course cowardly types like you enjoy slinging stones while hiding in the bushes.
@Bystander – Mark doesn’t even have the stones in the virtual world, where he can remain anonymous and still earn Hungarian charities some money.
Jackass, I am sorry but I didn’t really understand your post, and not for your poor use, or non-use, of commas. Where exactly did I deny anything other than your lack of logic?
@ Mark
I am rather confused about your posting on December 22, 2009 8:33 PM
I think you agreed with the mainstream history books stating 6 Million Jews and 5 million Non-Jews perished in the Holocaust and you have no respect for people who claim otherwise.
I am not 100 % sure if I interpreted the posting correctly. Please clarify
We were discussing hate speech on another thread If you are interested in how Canada dealt with someone denying the Holocaust check out “Regina vs. Keegstra” – I am sure a google search would bring up the case
@Bystander
It must take your kind of stones to murder unarmed Palestinian children and women
@Olga
I was giving the same kind of flippant response to Jewish claims of persecution that you find in the Jewish posts about the horrors of Jewish AVO and the Hungarians lingering fear and reluctance to tell the pollsters that they support JOBBIK. Read Bystander’s sarcastic post and C’est Moi’s claim that Rakosi was not a Jew because he was an atheist.
Do you agree or disagree that it is just as bad to deny Communist crimes, in Hungary’s case mostly Jewish Communist crimes as it is to deny Nazi crimes, in Hungary’s case Hungarian Arrowcross crimes? You should know from my posts that I do not accept the Communist double standard and will not let their lies go unanswered.
I could not answer any specifics about the “holocaust” because I was not there but I am sure that took place in Hungary. You need to take it up with the Germans. I assume that there were some atrocities in Hungary near the end of the war but I have no specifics on that either. We could assume that the Arrowcross shot some Jews but they could not possibly torture and murder people on the scale of Rakosi’s Jewish AVO.
The German Nazis and the Jewish Communists were very brutal and while the German Nazis murdered a lot of Jews, the Jewish Communists murdered a lot of Hungarians. I also know that the Nazis were persecuted and are still being persecuted for their crimes and even innocent people are convicted of Nazi crimes based on false testimony but not one of the Communists, mostly Jewish Communists who tortured and murdered countless Hungarians had to answer for their crimes. That is a double standard that I do not understand and do not accept.
I hope this helps.
REPLACE:
I could not answer any specifics about the “holocaust” because I was not there but I am sure that took place in Hungary.
WITH:
I could not answer any specifics about the “holocaust” because I was not there but I am sure that it did not happen in Hungary.
“Szazadveg-Forsense” gives no information how they collect data.
“Szonda-Ipsos”
http://www.szondaipsos.hu/site/kvantitat-v-m-dszerek/
Szonda-Ipsos describes its data collection methods. Almost all of these methods can identity and record those expressing opinions. One would need to be able to read Hungarian to make an intelligent comment about this and my earlier observations:
“CATI – telefonos kérdezési módszer
A telefonnal rendelkezők aránya az elmúlt időben jelentősen megemelkedett, a lakosság 74%-a (a budapesti lakosok 90% -a) rendelkezik otthoni telefonnal, így a mintakészítéshez szükséges alapsokaság alkalmas lett arra, hogy megbízható minta készüljön akár a lakosságot, akár valamely célcsoportot reprezentálva. “
Jackass, clearly you have reading comprehension problems. I never was trying to insinuate that Rakosi was not a Jew by blood, clearly this is nothing one can do. Forget about him turning his back on his religion, as I can tell than this will mean nothing to you. But what exactly does his religion have anything to do with his crimes in the AVO, did they dictate his actions? Nazis/Arrowcross were Christian, did this compelled them to try to wipe out Jews. What in his blood made Rakosi murder and torture through the AVO? Yes there clearly is a double standard about prosecuting Nazi vs Communists crimes and I have no idea why as communist crimes were equally appalling but your connection of Jews to communists lacks any sort of logic or reason. I don’t know what state you grew up in but clearly their school system is failing the public.
@Mark: “‘Szazadveg-Forsense’ gives no information how they collect data.”
You need to read the footer where it says “Módszertan”:
http://www.szazadveg.hu/kutatas/aktualis/novekvo-valasztoi-bizalmat-kap-karacsonyra-a-fidesz-251.html
As for you being able to state or speak intelligibly about statistics and data? You’ve had one too many glasses of eggnog already.
I’ve already had this conversation with Bobs… who, like you, always skated around detail in favour of meaningless statements.
Let’s face it, you Jobbik puppets know fuck all about stats and data, so best just stear well clear of dealing with it.
@ Mark
Re: “I could not answer any specifics about the “holocaust” because I was not there but I am sure that it did not happen in Hungary.”
Does that mean that if you were not present at every atrocity known to mankind in the last few thousand years, the atrocities did not happen?
If Rakosi was not present when people were tortured and killed, it didn’t happen?
In the 20th Century , Stalin, Lenin, Hitler, PotPot, Milosevic ( just to name a few dictators) killed millions and millions of innocent people – if you did not witness the murders they didn’t happen either?
You are an American – does that mean you are personally responsible for the war in Iraq?
What about Viet Nam? What about the tortures that are now coming to light with the Obama administration? Are you taking responsibility for that? Of course you weren’t there so it may not even be true.
Only the Jewish Holocaust is denied – even if it means denying the murder of the other 5 million non-Jews. Denial at any cost
Oh, well, “ millions of deaths” are only statistics as Stalin said.
@Vándorló
Ezt nem láttam a cimlapukon. However, as you can see it, they can also tell who is answering their questions and they collect a lot of information about those who respond. It is enough to make people not to respond or respond with “caution”.
@Mark: As with all polls this is statistically based where the pollsters match the demographics of the sample to match those of the general population as a whole in terms of gender, location, age, occupation, academic attainment etc…
The important sentence is “A minta összetétele a legfontosabb szocio-demográfiai tényezők szerint (nem, kor, régió, lakóhely településtípusa, iskolai végzettség) megfelel a felnőtt magyar lakosság arányainak.”
In this respect you would expect that were *you* to carry out the questionnaire following the CATI (telephone interview procedure/methodology) you would get the same results 19 times out of 20, with a margin of error of 3.1%. This is stated clearly. It isn’t a matter of conjecture and uncertainty as you attempt to paint it.
You and Bobs… need to take some time over the holiday to get to grips with math.
@C’est Moi
Insults only prove that you know that what I am saying is true and you are afraid, very afraid of truth.
All but one member of Rakosi cabinet was Jew and most of the AVO leaders were Jewish. Had there been one or two, one could write if off as coincidence. However, when a very small minority (less than 3%) produces most of these horrible, sadistic Communist murderers, one has to stop and think what makes them so evil.
György Vámos, a very decent and very patriotic Hungarian who happens to be a Jew recently wrote an article about “Kettős mérce”:
“A végső kegyelemdöfést az első szabadon választott kormány idején egy filmsorozat adta meg a kettős mérce életben tartásához. A Magyar félmúlt című sorozatban Zsoldosok címmel külön rész foglalkozott a Katonapolitikai Osztállyal, és három rész a ávósokkal. Amikor aztán az óriási nézettségre való tekintettel újra szerették volna vetíteni ezeket a részeket, Schweitzer József országos főrabbi közbenjárására nem kerülhetett adásba a sorozat. Arra hivatkoztak, hogy a filmekben túl hangsúlyos volt az ávósok zsidó származása. Az akkor már Boross Péter vezette MDF-kormány teret adva a kérésnek, behódolt, és így a mai napig dobozban pihennek a filmszalagok.”
Since I’m now off to to celebrate the Winter Solstice (the Hungarian word for Christmas ‘karácsony’ is of Slavic origin meaning ‘stepping over i.e. ‘lépő, átlépő’) – a little late for the real thing, I know.
Here’s wishing you all the best, kellemes karácsonyi ünnepeket és egészségben, sikerekben gazdag boldog új évet kívánok mindenkinek (tényleg, mindenkinek).
p.s. Just so people don’t feel left out:
С наступающим Новым Годом (for Pávaszem)
QISmaS DatIvjaj ‘ej DIS chu’ DatIvjaj (Klingon for Law)
Glæd Geol and Gesælig Niw Gear (Old English for BobsCountryBunker)
So all Jobbik-voters are afraid of the ‘Jewish AVO’, but not the Fidesz-voters?
In today’s Hungary (of which Mark/Tim/Tom knows nothing about then he can only refer to US-events) to openly state you are supporting MSZP or even worse SZDSZ would make you a laughing-stock in the neighbourhood.
How do we know that all these ‘jewish communists’ are not disguised as ‘not decided’, which is probably the biggest group (I cannot find any figure for that). All the % in the article is just based on the ‘decided voters’ which is probably less than 50% of the people polled.
Hmmm, so all these Jews running the AVO, they really must have made a paradise for Jews in Hungary after 45, didn’t they?
@Vandorlo:
Even though you forgot me (maybe you don’t know enough German ?), to you and everybody (especially you sane people out there):
Ein Frohes Weihnachtsfest (mit vielen Geschenken) und ein Gutes, Erfolgreiches Neues Jahr!
But I think I’ll be back here over Christmas while my wife does the cooking …
Hello C’est Moi,
The post 1945 regime was a terror and hell for everybody, including the top people. The reason was that the only man who could not be arrested was Joseph Stalin himself, but then it was a hell for him as well! He lived in daily fear of assination and betrayal. His paranoia begat terror to everybody below him. It wasn’t possible to maintain his kind of one man rule any other way.
About the Jews. Stalin based his power upon the principle that one person or group should be played against another if it helped his aims. After WW2, he understood that to utilize Jews to police the Hungarians would serve to consolidate his control over the newly aqcuired satrapy. Of course, Stalin didn’t care for either Jews or Hungarians particularly. He did understand that the events of WW2 produced a friction between the two groups that he could exploit.
So it was that the people he trusted to impose his brand of terror upon the Hungarian population were those who understood Hungarian, but who had a grudge against the Hungarian majority.
This is a kind of “Machiavellianism on steroids” that is very difficult for good people to understand. It’s diabolical and inhuman. It’s not the way decent people think and act. But then most of us don’t understand what it takes to maintain an empire of captive, unwilling people.
Not a cheerful subject! But in spite of that, best wishes to you for the holiday season and the New Year!
Farkas Lászlo@ Merry Christmas to you,one of the few sane voices here! Thanks for your communication with Erik-but it is to no avail,he has no interest in preventing such pathetic,cowardly incidents.However your intervention was much appreciated by us and will not be forgotten.
Mark,Law,Bobsbunker–good work but TAKE CARE.
Merry Christmas to you guys.
Thanks Ricsi!
I wish the same to you and best wishes for a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Laci
Laszlo – Merry Xmas to you and your family.