Fidesz chairman Viktor Orbán’s advisors have warned him against taking part in a televised debate between the prime ministerial candidates, an expert close to the Fidesz leadership told Népszabadság on Friday.
In the official Fidesz drive, which will kick off on March 15, the centre-right party is expected to copy the election campaign of US President Barack Obama. The party will project a message of change and hope and will collect donations from thousands of activists, maintain personal contact with voters, and conduct an intense online campaign, Népszabadság observed.
Francois de la Brosse, who ran President Nicholas Sarkozy’s online campaign, met several Fidesz leaders last month.
Strategically I would give him the same advice: as the front runner he has nothing to gain and everything to lose by a debate.
However it is quite quite wrong (in fact laughable) to ascribe Sarkozy’s success to his online campaign. And one wonders what those “thousands of activists” donating money would make of their cash being wasted in such ways.
Everyone acknowledges that Sarkozy’s win was down to his commitment to three policy areas:
1. Economic and Social spending reform. (The French economic model was slowly bankrupting the country.)
2. A solid Law & Order stance. (The banlieue riots had scared the country.)
3. An unashamed assertion of French culture and values. (Uncertain and self-doubting in the face of the growth of Islam.)
It was these three areas that enable Sarkozy to win so convincingly, and crucially in the case of the second two (which is probably why Fidesz consulted his campaign), enabled him to steal a march on Le Pen.
Those who would win here in April would do well to remember these facts, and not get foolishly mesmerized by Obama’s campaign.
Obama was “a breath of fresh air” – something to bring about sweeping changes in the old Washington establishment.
Orbán is about an establishment figure as you can get, so such a style of campaign will not work in his case. His party are way ahead in the polls already so… less is more.
Stick to a consistent message and ignore the rest.
Obama won because he promised to end the war and because McCain was an idiot. Do not bet on a second term for Obama unless the Republicans nominate a pair of idiots again. This election is Orban’s to lose and they are doing their best to lose again. Attacking Jobbik and not the Communist MSZP/SZDSZ gangsters is already costing Fidesz some of its most likely voters.
Orban has no choice but to debate. The best he can do is limit the number of debates to a minimum and avoid direct confrontation with Vona. Going head-to-head to Vona would show up his weaknesses.
Looking at some comments, most Hungarians see it this way:
“2002 óta csak a nyomor a szegénység, munkanélküliség nő!!!
Az mszp-szdsz-mdf magyarellenes, nemzetáruló összeborulás, az ország eladása után, most a vízkészleteink külföldi kezekbe történő átjátszásán ármánykodik!!!!!”
If anything, the mszp-szdsz-mdf will lose more support during the next months. The only question is who will pick up the lion share of support from those who had enough of Communist criminals.
@ bobscountrybunker.
Sarkozy did not win election because of the 3 reasons you mentioned. He mainly won because of a lack of valuable candidate in the Socialist party when came the final vote.
For the reasons you mentioned :
- The French system is expensive, and Sarkozy, like the previous presidents, will try to reduce the cost. It will not go to bankrupcy anyway.
- Security : Sarkozy personnally (for more than 10 years now) use this argument to take voters from far right party ..and he will always do it. All french people know this is just for election purposes. Former rightist president did the same.
- French Culture and Values : French people have no problem with Islam growth, as we make the difference between extremism and the human right to have a religion. The culture and values are deeply entered in history, education, and social life. Not afraid of diversity and new comers nowadays. I confessed it was not the case when migrants from Poland and Italy came to France in early 20e Cent. But it was a long time ago.
So not convinced, that Sarkozy can be a model for Orban as Hungarian and French society are not at the same level of maturity/experience.
An unashamed assertion of French culture and values. (Uncertain and self-doubting in the face of the growth of Islam.)
bobscountrybunker at January 11, 2010 11:47 AM
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And that is why the French elected a son of an immigrant, with Jewish and Hungarian ‘blood’ in him?
Given his blood-mix he may automatically be regarded as anti-Islam, but hardly a ‘Real French’?
By being just a ‘son of an immigrant’ he showed the many ‘children of immigrants’ that you can actually perform inside the French system and that was part of the ‘Change’-message.
Orban could do the same if he pushed his Roma-ancestry?
Not that I know he has one, but that is what kuruc.info claims and how many Roma has the name Orban?
It would be a ‘Change’ though in Hungarian politics.
@visitor
I beg to differ. I was in Paris at the time of the elections and this is what I heard and read first hand.
Your suggestion that he won only because there wasn’t a decent Socialist candidate to oppose him is I think more than a little disingenuous: and robs Sarkozy of his due in fighting a very successful, hard-won and ambitious campaign.
The fact remains that Sarkozy successfully neutered the nationalist / far-right Le Pen; whose achievements in the previous elections had been staggering. In the interim the problems that had made people vote for Le Pen had clearly got much worse, not better; which is why it is so noteworthy. And only a foaming at the mouth Communist would call Sarkozy a neo-Fascist. The Socialist campaign or candidate had very little indeed to do with Sarkozy’s success in this regard, wouldn’t you agree?
Although yes, Royale was a bit of a joke: the hugging of the person in the wheelchair had everyone’s eyes rolling the next day. But to concentrate on your last sentence: I do not take issue with it. Rather I would argue, very strongly, that the Sarkozy/France case is a far more relevant and apposite comparison for Hungary April 2010 than Obama/USA could ever be.
@bobscountrybunker
I did not say, not even suggest, that Sarkozy won “only” because of the lack socialist candidate, but said he won “mainly” because of the lack valuable socialist candidate. I am not as radical as you are, and know that there were other reasons as well. For your info, results might have been different if Strauss Khan Dom. was the opponent. And this is what french people do think.
There is no doubt that Sarkozy reduce far right results, but those voters just help him to win, but did not make the whole polls results. There is no reason to make a book on their contribution. Same phenomenon appear with Socialist, usually draging voters from Ecology and Communist parties. France do not tend to extrems, that the point. And each time a candidate mentioned ideas / items usually defended by far right / left parties, they are really cautious in order to avoid being assimilated to these parties : Far right / Communist. This is just a political behaviour and we know it.
I do not mind which model can be relevant for the next general election in Hungary, I wanted just to correct your perception of French election and situation.