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January 28th, 2010

Fidesz seen to win two-thirds majority in next parliament

By MTI

Hungary’s main opposition Fidesz and its ally Christian Democrats could win two-thirds of the seats plus nine more in the next parliament, according to an optimal scenario developed in a poll by Nezopont Intezet sent to MTI on Wednesday.

Nezopont used what they called a simplified methodology, identifying a “maximum potential vote” for each political party, the poll, commissioned by the conservative weekly Heti Valasz, said.

In terms of voter support for each party, Fidesz stood on 47 percent, the governing Socialists (MSZP) on 12 percent, radical nationalist Jobbik on 9 percent and the conservative opposition Democratic Forum (MDF) on 3 percent.

In creating the model of the maximum potential vote, the election was considered valid in all wards, only Fidesz, Socialist and Jobbik candidates made it to the second round and data from the results of the European parliamentary elections were used. Using this model, Fidesz was predicted to win 267 seats, MSZP 54 seats, Jobbik 46 and MDF 19.

The poll also showed that 41 percent of respondents support Fidesz leader Viktor Orban for prime minister, followed by the liberal economist Lajos Bokros, MDF’s PM candidate (15 percent), the Socialist PM candidate Attila Mesterhazy (7 percent) and Jobbik leader Gabor Vona (5 percent).

Fidesz’s pensioner voter base is still a double of the Socialist Party’s, the same as last year, the poll added.

The poll was conducted on a sample of 1,000 over-18 respondents from January 18 to 21.

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One Comment

  1. Viking says:
    January 28, 2010 at 12:28 pm

    “and data from the results of the European parliamentary elections were used”
    —
    The EP elections, Europe-wide, are known to give smaller party a bigger representation than National elections, so there is a bit skew there.
    -
    We also have here that MDF’s Bokross get 5 times more support as PM (in %) than his party to the Parliament.
    Gábor Zázrivecz (aka Vona) just get support to be PM by ca half of the people voting for Jobbik.
    Obviously not trusted by his own voters.