Fidesz support has fallen from 63% of decided voters in January to 58% this month, but the party still commands a huge lead over the Socialists, whose standing rose slightly from 21% to 22%, according to the latest survey by Szonda Ipsos.
Support for Jobbik grew from 12% to 14%, while no other party registered the 5% necessary to gain entry into Parliament. The Democratic Forum has 2% support, Politics Can Be Different and the Free Democrats have 1% each, and other parties 2%, while support for the Christian Democrats was too small to be measured.
Some 43% of respondents were undecided.
Only 46% of respondents said they will vote in April, up from 43% last month. This figure is 76% among Jobbik supporters, 67% among Fidesz sympathisers and 61% among Socialist voters.
Fidesz has 2.7-2.8 million supporters, of whom 1.7-1.8 million can be counted on to vote and a further 700,000 are highly likely to turn out. A further 200,000-300,000 will require more persuading.
The Socialists have 700,000 hardcore supporters and can convince a further 300,000 of the need to vote. With strong canvassing the Socialists could mobilise a further 100,000 potential supporters who are likely to stay home.
“The Socialists have 700,000 hardcore supporters”
.. this issue needs to be addressed.
700 000 poorly educated hungarians
Attila, I do not believe that the Communists have “700,000 hardcore supporters”. Many of those are retired people who do not care about politics, only who give them more aid. They are the people turning away from the Communists and supporting Fidesz because they hope that Fidesz will give them what the Communists promised but failed to deliver. I am not sure if all of them are poorly educated, they are just poor.
Still even more education need for the less than 500.000 voters that voted for Jobbik in the last EP-election.
On April 12 we will know if Jobbik has been successful in increasing its voter-base over the half million that has so far supported them with a vote
Attila, There is every indication that for the first time since the departure of Soviet tanks, Hungarians will go to the polls with their eyes open. Communists are scared of Jobbik but they are also scared of Fidesz. However, what they fear most is a Fidesz victory with strong Jobbik showing.
Communists are scared of Jobbik but they are also scared of Fidesz. However, what they fear most is a Fidesz victory with strong Jobbik showing.
Mark at February 15, 2010 7:06 AM
—-
Why should they be more scared than last time Fidesz was in power?
After that Fidesz-period, which only lasted 4 years, it took Fidesz 8 years before it is in the position to be expected to easily win the upcoming election.
The scare is most likely on the Jobbik-side if the cannot break through the ‘magic’ limit of 500.000 voters voting for them, because if not;
* what was all this work worth?
-
Any Fidesz-Government running, what others will see (regardless if Fidesz see it like that, or not), Jobbik-inspired policies will give Hungary more problems with the other EU-member states and sooner take Hungary down the drain, creating a more than 8 year period before the Fidesz will be re-elected again
Democracy is so bad, right?
Better with the old system and skip the voters?
Murkybrain wrote:”Communists are scared of Jobbik but they are also scared of Fidesz”
No problem, I don’t think there are as many communists in Hungary as he believes.
On this site there probably are no communists at all …