Analysts sure of Fidesz victory at elections

Political analysts said on Tuesday that they were are certain the opposition Fidesz party would be power after the April elections but its ability to govern effectively would much depend on whether it manages to secure a two-thirds majority.

Addressing a Budapest conference of the Confederation of Hungarian Employers and Industrialists, Laszlo Keri and Istvan Stumpf agreed that Fidesz’s four-year term would consist of two phases: the first year would be dominated by seeing to the economic recovery and the rest by nurturing an economic upswing.

Keri said that for their first year in power, the government would have a potent card in their hands: laying the blame for the country’s woes at the feet of Socialist government.

But Fidesz will have to deal with radical nationalist party Jobbik, which will deploy the same “weapons” against it as Fidesz itself used against the ruling Socialists.

Fidesz managed to derail a number of reforms and played on the perception that some figures the Socialist government, such as the shamed politician Janos Zuschlag, were corrupt.

But despite some drawbacks, Fidesz could a chance to implement some long-term social, economic and foreign consolidation. Whether it is wise enough to step up to the mark, however, remains to be seen, Keri added.

If Fidesz wins a two-thirds majority it will be in a position to transform Hungary’s constitution, he said. In this case, it would probable take steps to reshape the local government and electoral systems and downsize Parliament and the municipal councils.

Few policies of any substance will come to light in the election campaign, said Keri.

“The Socialists are unable and Fidesz is unwilling to talk about anything,” he said. By taking sides on any issue, Fidesz would risk losing hundreds of thousands of potential voters, he added.

Istvan Stumpf, who was Orban’s former cabinet head in 1998-2002 and now president of Szazadveg Foundation, a think-tank, said that once in power, Fidesz would face two challenges. First, “the country is exposed to the IMF agreement”, which gives it little room for manoeuvre on the economy. Second, Hungary will hold the post of EU presidency during the first half of 2011, imposing a burden on state administration.

Stumpf said the new government was likely to establish a “super chancellery”, with a super-ministry put in charge of the economy.

Stumpf said the Socialists and Jobbik fight for second place in parliament. Citing a recent Szazadveg survey, he said that Jobbik has more supporters than the Socialists in the age groups of 18-29 and 40-49 but falls short of its rival among the over-50s.

From among all eligible active earner voters, ten percent support Jobbik and five percent the Socialists, he said, adding that many Socialist voters consider the conservative Democratic Forum’s PM-candidate, Lajos Bokros, a more suitable choice for the post than the party’s own candidate, Attila Mesterhazy.