Heads of three Hungarian pollsters outlined scenarios for main opposition Fidesz’s likely victory at parliamentary elections just four weeks away, daily Nepszabadsag reported on Friday.
Tibor Zavecz of Szonda Ipsos said Fidesz’s two-thirds majority win very much hinges on radical nationalist Jobbik’s ability to get out the vote on election day. A lower turnout will work in favour of Jobbik, he added. Another scenario is that Fidesz manages to attract supporters of the radical right wing last minute, in which case it can form government on a very strong majority and go ahead with planned constitutional changes without obstacles.
Endre Hann of Median said it remained moot whether the ongoing corruption scandals, mainly surrounding the Budapest transport company BKV, would put a further dent in the ruling Socialists’ eroded popularity. Zavecz said the Socialists had a firm base of 700,000 supporters and about 400,000 dormant supporters who can be reactivated. The best-case scenario would give the Socialists 30 percent of the votes in the elections, Hann said.
Andras Giro-Szasz of Szazadveg added that the small parties – the conservative Democratic Forum and the green LMP party – still appear to have the ability to rake up support to meet the 5 percent threshold for seats in parliament. If they do, they will be taking away mandates mainly from the Socialists, up to 10-15 seats, in certain scenarios, Giro-Szasz said.
Szonda Ipsos predicted 35, 12 and 10 percent of support for Fidesz, the Socialists and Jobbik, respectively in its latest poll taken in March. Szazadveg’s prediction was 33-15-5 percent for those parties, while Median’s poll shows a support level of 44-14-9 percent, among the whole voter sample.
