Political analysts discussed the possible outcome of the April general elections, focusing on the rise of the radical nationalist Jobbik party, at a press conference in Budapest on Tuesday.
Laszlo Keri said that Hungary’s ailing left-wing forces would be unable to prevent the conservative Fidesz party from winning a two-thirds majority. Only Jobbik is able to do that now, he said.
It is Jobbik rather than Fidesz that is truly benefiting from public disgust with corruption and the rise on youth unemployment, Keri said. He predicted, however, that the rise of the radical right wing would come to a sudden stop after the elections.
He estimated that hundreds of thousand potential voters were vacillating between Fidesz and Jobbik.
It is due to Jobbik’s rise that Parliament, after 14 years of wrangling, passed a law on punishing Holocaust denial, Keri said.
Zoltan Kiszelly qualified Jobbik as a “mini catch-all party” which has amalgamated, among others, anti-government demonstrators and anti-Semites.
He said by permanently criticising and dissociating themselves from Jobbik, the two big parties were actually boosting it.
Kiszelly said that criticism of globalisation, emphasis on the unjust nature of the post-WWI Trianon peace treaty and dissatisfaction with the 20 years since Hungary’s transition to democracy had also expanded Jobbik’s voter base.
To isolate Jobbik, some Socialist circles no longer rule out cooperation with Fidesz, he said.
“To isolate Jobbik, some Socialist circles no longer rule out cooperation with Fidesz, he said.”
Everybody who is not blind saw it coming. When is comes to Communist dirt and corruption, Fidesz is better than the hard-line Communist MSZP/SZDSZ but not clean. This is why Jobbik’s call for accounting for not just the past 8 years but for the past 20 years sends chills up Fidesz politician’s backs.
While the Communist MSZP/SZDSZ is up to it neck in corruption, the other current parties in Parliament are up to their waist in corruption. Not as bad as the hard-line Communist MSZP/SZDSZ but still bad enough to be nervous about accounting for the past 20 years.
When Hungarians see Jobbik coming under seemingly coordinated attack from Fidesz and MSZP, they are reminded that Orban, the same as Gyurcsany were KISZ (Communist Youth) leaders. When things come down to having to take sides, those that belong together come together.
@BJ. You are the “enlightened one” and speak the truth. Which is very rare around these parts.
Hungarians are going to have to realize that politicians irrespective of their party are communist animals. Jobbik may be a catalyst for change. We all hope so.
Orban Viktor is out with the washing – or washed up on the tide. Fidesz should have dumped him years ago. And put in a new leader focused on change and reform. Twenty years have gone by and we still struggle with ridding ourselves of useless and corrupt politicians that get away with every misdemeanour under the sun “because they can”!
Dear BJ and Szemely,
One concern that I have expressed about the elite old gaurd ex-communists is that they have made a great deal of money in the past 20 years: the privatisations, the international arrangements that include EU deals etc. They have gone from believing in a rigid Marxist Leninist ideology, to that of just believing only in themselves and their private enrichment. The smarter ones have put this wealth no doubt in foreign banks, where it might be difficult to trace and recover (To this day, the Phillipine govt. does not know where many of Ferdinand Marcos’ billions have gone!)
These people and their party could be voted out of office, but with that wealth they can still buy influence. They may even mutate into Jobbik “supporters” and bribe it’s politicians to “go easy” on certain issues that conflict with their financial interests. I don’t want to sound like a pessimist, which I am basically not, but I do try and forsee problems. I’m a realist, and the ordinary people of Hungary will continue to be surrounded by wolves, and will have to keep gaurd against it.
It is true what you say FL about wolves changing their habitat.
I have always maintained that any party wishing to take power should have a manifesto specifying the reforms they intend to implement to combat a
raft of corrupt practices still in place twenty years after the communist regime supposedly fell apart.
I do not feel Orban Viktor has the credentials to be able to change things.Therefore we are on the back foot even before we begin?
Kedves AranyJanos,
(Interesting username by the way; I’ve enjoyed that author’s works!)
The history of nations shows many examples of reform political movements and their politicians being sidetracked from their original intentions when they tried to curb the wealth and influence of rich special interests. The problem of corruption is worldwide and difficult to combat, as it almost always means stepping on the toes of those who know how to get their way.
The one relevant idea that Marx had in this situation (and please folks,
I am NOT a Marxist or communist!) is that history and it’s events are “dialectical”. In other words, subject to a constant pull of cause effect, conflict and counter-conflict. Jobbik’s intention to clean up corruption and to question just how the old gaurd got their wealth, will have to be the subject of constant conflict and enforcement. For the next few decades and perhaps longer, the people themselves will have to keep watch over the system and it’s leaders and make sure it is performing according to their own needs and values. I know of no democratic country where these concerns have been solved within a few years.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
@ mc
” they will guard themselves against themselves. ”
You peaked my curiosity and in less then a minute I found out the answer. Google is my friend.
Thanks for posting that – very interesting concept especially prior to an election
The flip side of that is the old argument against Plato’s “Republic”, where he wants society run by “guardians”. Who gaurds over the “guardians”? Plato had an elitist vision incompatible with modern democracy. The ultimate gaurdians will have to be the people and the ballot box.
@FarkasLászló
“For the next few decades and perhaps longer, the people themselves will have to keep watch over the system and it’s leaders and make sure it is performing according to their own needs and values.”
I can’t see it happening. People venting their anger against each other on this site proves my point.
Many Hungarians are completely in the dark about politics and how they can change things. Going to the ballot box every couple of years and voting for the MSZP or Fidesz is not enough. Jobbik claim to be the “new kids on the block” that will make a difference. Perhaps. But the people must find it within themselves to make some effort if they want change and reform.
Hi advocate,
I have long “advocated” your point of view; it’s going to be true enough for a while, but no society stays the same and there can be evolution. Meanwhile, there is no other means of bringing about political change except the ballot box. As a Hungarian, I remember the time (not so very long ago) when we didn’t have that option. It seemed like a state of affairs that would last forever, but it didn’t! Evolution at work!
Sadly Democracy is still controlled by elitists, look what happened to Austrian politician Jörg Haider, this is what I hope doesn’t happen to Vona Gabor, some times it can take more then a vote to rule a country with honesty, western democracy is still orchestrated by the Establishment, and it’s the establishment that needs to be exposed not the population that is divided by the duality of left and right wing which is again a way to control and rule people. So all I ask is the ignorant Neo Liberals to awaken and smell the roses, because all they’re doing is supporting the establishment, I’m hoping the innocently ignorant people rise to the occasion, this is the true reality.
Hi FL…
“Meanwhile, there is no other means of bringing about political change except the ballot box.”
-
I know what you’re getting at, so I don’t want you to think I’m ‘twisting’ things. I just think that although elections are the biggest single event in the process of democracy, they are not the only available means of political change.One of the most important things is sustained involvement in public debate by as many members of the public as possible.Social pressure on government can be a significant force throughout the election cycle, but it depends on people taking it on themselves to know what’s going on and by demanding accountability from their politicians.I can understand why Hungarians are so disillusioned, and why many just don’t want to hear about politics, so am I really not trying to ‘smear’ anyone; I just can’t help but feel that if more people knew more, and spoke up more of the time, perhaps the ‘establishment’ wouldn’t feel so secure that they can just do whatever the hell they want.In the end, it shouldn’t just be the politicians ‘leading’ the people, the people need to make very clear what their expectations of the government are all of the time, and not just on election day.
@Law:
Wow, didn’t know that Vona is also gay like Haider.
Are you sure ?
Or do you expect “the same” to happen to “his” party – splitting after a few years ?
You talk in riddles – didn’t know your brain had the capacity for this. I’m more used to your typical statements:
“It’s plain to see that viking is an Israel agent
along with his mossad scum.
Law at January 10, 2010 8:51 AM”
Or have you changed your mind ?
Dear Law,
The situation we have inherited goes back to 1989, when the country opted for a “velvet” transition from the old communist order. What I mean by that is that the maintainers of the old order were allowed to go on and prosper in business and politics without legal reprisals, restrictions or consequences. (This didn’t just happen in Hungary)
At the time, I felt this was very wrong, and I still do. I would have favored a far less “velvety” transition. But the country wasn’t up for putting many thousands of people on trial, or passing restrictions on their involvement in politics and business. As a result, the change of regime, rather than being a disempowerment to the ex-communists, was actually empowering, both politically and financially. The “fall of communism” has been good for many of the ex-communists! It’s one of the ironies and injustices of our history.
The mere fact that they have made perhaps billions off the sale of former state assets, or privatisation or EU deals gives them the power to be an almost unaccountable elite. If you increase the heat on them, they can leave the counry and enjoy the money they stashed away in foreign banks. If they stay, they will use some of that money to buy the system and make it do what they want it to do. It will be hard to get real reform and democracy going in Hungary.
We don’t need these people in Hungary Full Stop, no questions we have to cleanse our whole government, and any corruption to be dealt with by harsher laws then the common man because the person holds public office, can’t you see we don’t want the western model capitalism, it’s poisoning society, it’s corrupt to the core by the ESTABLISHMANT!!
What I don’t understand is why the most transparent
party in Hungary also has ties to Anti-semitism and
anti-European movements. It seems to me that
embracing all people as human, and all humans having
human rights is the perfect political ideology for
Jobbik. I hope you guys/girls can enlighten me.
What I don’t understand is why the most transparent
party in Hungary also has ties to Anti-semitism and
anti-European movements.
Outsider at March 18, 2010 3:19 PM
===
Nothing of the sort. Hungarians love Semites. It is the mű-israelis who hate Semites.
Hungarians have shown their solidarity time and time again with the Semitic Palestinian people who are murdered by racist, Nazi Avigdor Lieberman, the Russian mű-israeli and other mű-israelis who are murdering and robbing the Semite Palestinians of everything they have, including their organs.
@ Outsider
here is your answer:
“…there was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the stronger, ‘and this will always be the man in the street.’ Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology…Hatred and contempt must be directed at particular individuals.”
H. Trevor-Roper (ed), The Goebbels Diaries, p. XX, cited in Regan, Geoffrey. 1987. Great Military Disasters. New York: M. Evans and Company.
Olga: great quote.
Intellectuals are so attached to the dead word that they were not willing to acknowledge that there is something more, something beyond the dead word. And even though many Intellectuals could feel something stirring in their hearts when they heard me speak, their minds would override their hearts as so often happens, especially in this modern world where people have become more intellectual than in previous times. It is so easy for the intellectual, reasoning mind to reason away the promptings you get from the heart.
Law anb bj – what a fantastic couple they make.
Couldn’t Jobbik get them to write their programme and Vona’s speeches ?
That would be marvelous – and funny …
Law: “And even though many Intellectuals could feel something stirring in their hearts when they heard me speak, their minds would override their hearts as so often happens, especially in this modern world where people have become more intellectual than in previous times.”
-
Just a couple of questions:
1)Is this a quote from someone else? I’m just wondering who ‘me’ is.
2)”More intellectual than in previous times.” Which previous times are you talking about? Societies going back millenia have had intellectual traditions.
@ Cinaed
I remember reading and writing an essay on “Animal Farm” many moons ago.
Orwell believed that:
totalitarianism ( where the state involves itself in every aspect of society including the daily life of its citizens. ) = perilous future.
JOBBIK = totalitarianism
Therefore JOBBIK = perilous future
Penalizing someone for attending a public parade that’s attended by respectable politicians and the Police Chief in a Democratic country like Canada is one clear example of over involvement in a private citizen’s life.
I could think of many more examples but this was a handy “topic de jour”
@Cináed:
Of course it is from a speech that Law has written for the new leader – forgot his name …
Olga: what bothers me is that somehow some guy going to a parade in Canada is a more important topic to comment on than the issue of women’s rights within Hungary.
@Cináed re women’s rights.
From the Jobbik programme:
“Stay-at-Home Mothers’ Subsidy” and
“Our reform of the pensions’ system will … promote the having of children”
You should talk about a woman’s duties …
@incontinentpuppy
I’ve warned you about this before.
Quote entire sentences.
Nobody is fooled by your “…” tricks.
Remember that.
@Bob:
You always ask for answers but you haven’t given me one on th Jobbik programme that I quoted (and it was a whole sentence …)
“Our homeland, situated in the very centre of Europe and at a strategic point of impact, requires a fighting force consisting of a standing army 40,000 strong, increasable as necessary by a reserve fighting force of 10,000; in addition to which, the protection of the country’s hinterland necessitates the creation of a territorial defence entity some 20,000 – 22,000 persons strong.”
So are you part of the “Hungarian hinterland” – you sound like a typical Hinterwäldler …
Will you help Jobbik to defend Hungary from its enemies, the NATO or the EU or whatever ?
Anyway you are just boring – I’d like a return to the good old days:
“Your days are numbered Zionist Devils!
Love to Hungarians and it’s awakening nation ..Szebb Jovot!
Hotpaprika at October 29, 2008 8:40 AM”
That was the spirit!
Yes, Bob will\”help Jobbik to defend Hungary from its enemies\” by creating a wall of diaper-stink to deter them from his country. And THEN he will attempt to bring that technology to Hungary after he leaves HIS country. This incident has shown what total pussies these people are. I guess any psychologist knows that people overcompensate by bravado when they are actually \”scaredy cats\”… Maybe this explains all the hatred spewing out from him, BJ, Elle, Law etc.
—-
The hatred is the result of absolute crippling FEAR. Of Jews, outsiders, people who don\’t ride horses with maps and compasses and feathers and so forth…
—
\”The best remedy for those who are afraid, lonely or unhappy is to go outside, somewhere where they can be quiet, alone with the heavens, nature and God. Because only then does one feel that all is as it should be and that God wishes to see people happy, amidst the simple beauty of nature.\”–Ann Frank, JEW
wolfi: “written for the new leader – forgot his name …”I thought you knew…Vandorlo is the ‘leader’.All hail Van.
-
My bringing up the issue of women’s rights in Hungary was prompted by a couple of things.It wasn’t so much about attacking the Jobbik policy on maternity allowances and such, which I think are just part of the ongoing policy debate.This was more about the question of race and culture and their relationship to crime.For extended periods there is this sustained ‘outcry’ over “Gypsy crime”, with the often cited cases being those of sexual assault.The responses often include statements about how the Magyar people are fine, upstanding and moral, while the Roma are degenerate, atavistic and without conscience. Morvai states clearly in her article that the ‘sacred’ status of Hungarian culture and its influence on society doesn’t just condone violence against women, but regards it as a normal part of life.She also states that sexual offenders are usually intimate partners or family.Now my motive here is NOT TO SMEAR HUNGARIAN CULTURE, but to say that sexual abuse is wrong regardless of culture or race, and that hiding behind culture only serves to disempower victims even further.As they say, victims of sex assault are raped twice.Once by the offender and once by everyone else.To politicise sex assault as a race issue while downplaying assault by your own people, adds a third rape.I applaud Morvai’s stand on this and hope that it doesn’t get diluted through politics.
(cont)
Now as much as possible I want to avoid the perception that I am being hypocritical or unfair. Elle correctly pointed out that Hungary is a relatively low crime country as compared with many other European nations. Furthermore, the dynamics of sexual assault are the same pretty much everywhere in the world. In this sense, Hungary is really not any worse than anywhere else. I think this though also needs to be taken into consideration when using this topic to charge up the hype about crime within Hungary. Personally, I think Hungary is a classic example of the ‘broken windows’ theory of crime.Of course, Hungary needs more and better policing, and the justice system needs massive reform, but, the issue of crime, whatever kind, is first and foremost a social issue before it is a policing or justice issue, meaning that as always ‘prevention is better than cure’.