March 17, 2010, 9:57 CET

Analysts' Corner

Attacks on LMP reveal that they're starting to make the other parties nervous

lehetmaslogo.jpgIt is said for politicians and political parties that until they find themselves under attack, they haven't really arrived. In that respect, the folks over at left-liberal Lehet Más a Politika ("Politics Can be Different") are probably happy about the recent attacks leveled at them, for it's a tacit acknowledgment that they're gathering enough support to annoy the other parties, who are now concerned about losing some of their support to Hungary's "green" party.

The first salvo was from Socialist-friendly daily Népszabadság and was written by Ákos Tóth, who incidentally received a journalism award from the government on March 15th. Tóth took swipes at the party, asking how they were really different and alleging that the only way they were able to collect enough "recommendation slips" was through the support of Fidesz, which he added that LMP has been careful not to be critical of.

More recently, as index.hu reported, Jobbik charged LMP with falsifying some of their recommendation slips in Nagykőrös, which LMP has denied. Apparently the issue is that more than one pen was used to fill out the slips. LMP spokesman Gergely Karácsony called it ridiculous to expect that all slips be filled out by the same pen, as people will use different pens over time.

While Tóth admitted in his opinion piece that the Socialists stand to lose votes to LMP, the same concept was behind Jobbik's decision to protest against LMP's slip collection in Nagykőrös, even if the party won't admit as much.

In fact, Fidesz is basically the only party unlikely to lose voters at LMP's gain. In the case of the Socialists, LMP may siphon off some votes from people who prefer interventionist (traditionally lefty) economic policies as well as those with a liberal attitude toward social issues (which is why a lot of former Free Democrat voters went over to LMP in last year's European Parliamentary elections).

In terms of gaining votes from possible Democratic Forum and Jobbik supporters, it's simply a case of positioning themselves as recipients of the protest vote. The Democratic Forum has over the previous decade essentially become the magnet for the protest vote, with their recent electoral platform of "anything for votes" resulting in the party's loss of credibility among many who saw them as being different from the other parliamentary parties.

With respect to Jobbik, although the party undeniably has a base strong enough to get it into parliament and it currently is the third most popular party in Hungary, they have also been recipients of the protest vote from people simply giving the finger to the Socialists and Fidesz, or alternatively trying to scare them. With Jobbik rising in the polls, many who would have voted for them simply to disagree with the Socialists and Fidesz might shift their vote to LMP for a variety of reasons, be it disagreement over Jobbik's position on the issues or the belief that Jobbik can now succeed without them.

As for why Fidesz has no reason to be worried, it's because the few votes they might lose to LMP aren't diehard supporters to begin with, and any losses seen by Fidesz will be much less than that seen by the other parties.

But most importantly for LMP, aside from some free publicity, is that if the other parties (especially the Socialists) are showing enough concern about them, it means they must be doing something right.

TAGS:   elections   fidesz   jobbik   lmp   mdf   mszp

1 Comments

"Jobbik charged LMP with falsifying some of their recommendation slips in Nagykőrös, which LMP has denied. Apparently the issue is that more than one pen was used to fill out the slips"
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For me this *is* Jobbik in a nut-shell
They continue the tradition of MIEP (same people?) and in every election try to set a record in filing stupidities
Having an extreme interpretation of rules and laws they are unable to stop themselves from filing legal complaints like the above case
Maybe time to do the same with them?

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