Viktor Orbán went on television this morning to talk about his much-anticipated meeting yesterday in Brussels with European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, and in the interview said something that – at least to me – was striking.
In discussing the conflict with the EU over the government’s perceived attempt to legislate away the Hungarian National Bank’s independence, he called the law passed allowing the merger of the MNB with financial regulator PSZÁF “not a major bone of contention” and then said he’d be willing to let go “for the sake of peace” the similarly controversial new statute allowing government representatives to sit in on meetings of the central bank. But then he said that the requirement that the head of the central bank swear an oath to the constitution was a “red line” (vörös vonal) that he would not cross.
So let me get this straight: A law which would allow the government to directly control monetary policy – something every political leader in the West wishes they had – is no big deal, but a requirement which essentially says that the central bank chief should stand up straight while saluting the flag is a potential dealbreaker in negotiations that could determine whether Hungary goes bust?
I know symbolism is important for this government, and they are probably planning on diverting attention from their inevitable surrender on most substantive points of dispute with the EU with some symbolic victories like this. Still, if stuff like this is what Orbán considers a “red line,” no wonder even Hungary’s spineless liberals are accusing him of waving the white flag. Bizarre. [origo.hu]
A “red line” issue to Orban is one he can “win”. If the EU told him he couldn’t have it, it would become trivial. He now left with fighting to save face. He’s desperate to avoid the appearance of being what he is. An empty suit. Hungary as represented by Viktor Orban seems to have a precious few friends at the EU. If Viktor was actually humiliated by the EU, to me that would be poetic justice for his childish and petty behavior in the past. As you sow, so shall you reap.
It may seem like a storm in a tea-cup, but as EP Speaker Schulz stated yesterday – Orban is clever
If we quote from the original EC-statement:
“Finally, the Governor and the members of the Monetary Council have to take an oath (of fidelity to the country and its interests) whose text is problematic given that the Governor of the MNB is also a member of the General Council of the ECB”
(-http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/12/24&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en)
And as a “the Governor of the MNB is also a member of the General Council of the ECB”, that person should have the whole EU at his interest, not just that of his member state
Given that Fidesz has already implemented Ukrainian-styled political trials (the Ukrainian originals have been severely criticised by the EU and led to a melt-down in the relations EU-Ukraine), the EU legal experts are of course afraid that Orban will initiate similar trials against any MNB Governor that does not follow Orban’s lead
“Hungary’s spineless liberals”
Yeah, that’s a good wording. I myself would add some more adjectives like this but this is good enough for now.
Leto says:
January 25, 2012 at 6:00 pm
“Hungary’s spineless liberals”
—
Tip, Viktor Orban and his Fidesz were “liberals” before…
They are still “spineless” though
On a different note, there’s a bit of counting those chicken (before they are hatched) and a bit of wishful thinking here. The battle is not over.
On the question:
Q: Do you have any red lines for negotiations with the EU and IMF?
Orban answered:
A: “There’s no issue that’s not open for discussion. Of course there are strategic issues that cannot be given up. We want to be the most competitive country in Central Europe, our indebtedness can’t go up and we want a middle-class based democracy. These pillars are so important, they can’t be neglected.”
-
So, Erik, forget it it – “There’s no issue that’s not open for discussion”
(-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204624204577182881879904886.html)
“The battle is not over.”
You got something up your sleeve, Leto? Another pro-government rally, perhaps?
Perhaps some other things, too.
So what are your red lines? Curious to hear, and then compare against the ones OV backs over.
I’m also curious to hear your explanation about that sentence with the phrase “play pogrom”.
Okay, you claim Bayer is an anti-Semite. And then what? How does that unfold from there?
Leto says:
January 25, 2012 at 8:53 pm
I’m also curious to hear your explanation about that sentence with the phrase “play pogrom”.
—
‘leto’s’ inability to answer a question that would lead to some commitment, remind me very much of ‘bob’ refusing to do the same
@Viking
It’s simple; Leto likes to seem like he knows something, or is in on some kind of secret plan, but he really has nothing. It’s easy to back him into a rhetorical corner, from which he has no escape, and then he starts insulting, name-calling, changing the subject, or just ignoring you. When he tells you to “piss off”, you know he has no other answers left, just like a little child.
@Leto: I’m going to go back to that piece about the demonstration to clarify again what I meant by that. In the meantime, how about those red lines? I’m really not trying to trap you or whatever, and you have to understand that I am totally sympathetic to the idea that it sucks for Hungary to be bossed around by Brussels, etc. I’m just sincerely curious about what exactly are the lines in the sand that the gov’t and its supporters won’t allow to be crossed.
@Eric:
Well, symbolic things are important for me (us?) for sure, so the MNB chairman’s swearing an oath to the constitution is definitely one. It sounds so absurd EC has a problem with this that I tend to think this was something like a bait or filler. The merger of the MNB with financial regulator PSZÁF seems to be another one (on this side), it’s not a red line again. As far as the retirement age for judges is concerned, I think EC has a weak position on that and I don’t consider that a red line either. The data protection whatever is a filler again.
The non-economic red lines: the Constitution itself, say defining marriage as marriage and the symbolism of the constitution preamble. This is really about political values, national pride and our sovereignty.
Anything else left?
All in all, I think the whole dispute boils down to economic issues, chiefly the issue of big foreign business, at the end of the day.
So a red line is abolishing the crisis taxes earlier than announced (that is this year) on the MNCs, I think. For me, that would mean an unquestionable defeat. As for the “independence of MNB” (from the country), well, that row is bound to continue in one way or other anyway.
Uh, my writing could have been opaque a bit.
My red lines:
- MNB chairman oath
- the disputed symbolic issues about the Constitution
- early abolition of crisis taxes
So better for Hungary to default, than not collect some limited taxes?
Why wait for that ‘red line’ and not default immediately, then it seems so good to do it?
So then you are OK with potential demands to
1) Change/rescind media law
2) Change/rescind law on religions.
3) Change/rescind law regarding judiciary
4) Change/rescind un-fair labor laws
5) Change/rescind flat tax
All of these things have been brought up as potential points.
All your fussing and fuming and you come up with just three red lines.
You are sounding like an EU supporter today.
@Pete H.:
1/ The media law is now history with those “only cosmetic changes made” (quote from some büdöskomcsi MEP Kinga Göncz, I think)
Why would they be unfair anyway and how? 
Ah, potential demands… from your personal dreams.
2/ Rescinding won’t happen. Similar “cosmetic changes” possibly.
3/ I don’t know what you mean. I wrote that I don’t think the EC has a strong legal case here, the government might trade this in for something though. It’s not a red line thing.
4/ Something new on whose list?
5/ It won’t happen. What could happen is they take this out from the cardinal acts. This was a stupid thing to do anyway, I didn’t agree to that.
I have been and I am an EU supporter (just like Orbán). But I am not an EU federalist. A big, big no to EU as a supranational state.
Oh, Red Line Number 2 was quite a package in case you failed to notice.
Leto says:
January 26, 2012 at 8:49 pm
The media law is now history
—
Illusion
Every law, in every member state can always come up to review, if the implementation of the said law warrants that
If implementation of the Media Law, in the light of KlubRadio License Case, for example, rises legal concern, the EU-Commission can open an infringement procedure into the Media Law
As Simple As That
It is never ever over…
Leto must be unaware of the meeting the European Commissioner for Digital Agenda just had with Klubrádió. You are right it is never over.
Pete H. must be aware what Mr. Bolgár, one of the two postcommie bastards from the propaganda station Klub rádió who met Neelie Kroes on Wednesday, said this in 2009:
“What would be the basis for a decision about a radio station, who would be entitled to a frequency. That’s a question of competition. You cannot say (radio channels) Danubius and Sláger have done a good job so the frequency is theirs forever. No! It’s been announced they’d get it for some years and then there’s be a tender. The one who would offer the most, the best conditions, that offer will be accepted.”
(Milyen alapon döntenek arról, hogy ki működtesse a rádiót, kapja meg a frekvenciát – az egy verseny kérdése. Nem lehet azt mondani, hogy Danubius és Sláger, illetve a tulajdonosok jól csinálták, ezért örökre az övék. Nem! Ki van írva, hogy ennyi évre kapják meg, és utána egy pályázatot hirdetünk. Aki a legtöbbet ajánlja, és a legjobb feltételeket, azét fogjuk elfogadni.”)
Mr. Bolgár’s current explanation: These sentences were taken out of context, he didn’t mean these sentences.
As it’s well-known, Klub rádió offered substantially less for the frequency so let Mr. Bolgár and his cohort eat their own food dog.
So why not offer everyone the original context, so everyone can make their own evaluation?
My dear Leto syas “The media law is now history”.
It is clearly not and the meeting with the European Commissioner for Digital Agenda is proof of that.
So Leto’s tactic is then to deflect with an ad hominem attack.
It is still an issue and his deflection doesn’t change that.
@Pete H.:
What are those issues with the media law after the “cosmetic changes” made? Spare me from your usual nonsense drivel about the “freedom of press” and be specific. Is it Klub rádió? For a good response to that, see what Mr. Bolgár said in 2009.
You made the claim it is no longer an issue, it certainly is and is likely to be one of the obstacles to getting the IMF money.
-http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/media-freedom-investigator-denounces-hungary-15438903#.TyK7eWCkT1g
Care to retract your claim? Of course not.
The statement by Mr. Bolgár, that you took out of context, is irrelevant. He will not decide whether the media law is an issue that is part of the IMF and EU disputes. Either you know that and are trying to distract, or you’ve become dizzy with the accelerated pace of developments.
-http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2012/01/latest-budapest
Support for most of my 5 points.
reality 10 leto 0
@Pete H.:
Certainly this was enough context for Mr. Bolgár’s words back in 2009.
The *original* context and not the spin!
So the spin is the only thing ‘leto’ can supply
No source, no meat!
Leto = Fidesz papagáj
Here is a situation in which the outcome will directly impact on Hungary’s grave economic circumstances:
The French banks such as BNP Paribas are going to
have to take a big hit in the final stages of the on-going Greek Tragedy, saga.
This will create the first ripple of discontent as the banks (on the basis of ‘too big to fail”) will have to be re-financed out of the public coffers. This will not go down well with the French electorate. Nick Sarkozy goes to the polls under a cloud later this year: it’s curtains for him, I fear!
Either way, the Greek problem will never be resolved at the present rate.
The best solution for everyone concerned is to put their hands up and admit failure and quarantine Greece !
The IMF, ECB, Eurozone, European Union, and, specifically – Germany, have shirked their responsibilities and the patchwork quilt is looking shoddier by the day!
BTW. Leto is a solitary voice and must be on a good knockback from his Fidesz employers to have his nuts kicked into touch everyday.
And, please do not forget, Orban, cut Simor Andras’ salary last year by 75%? Isn’t that considered interference, or am I wrong?
“Orban, cut Simor Andras’ salary last year by 75%”
What a shame that Simor doesn’t earn more than the chairman of FED anymore. Perhaps organize a donations campaign for him.
OV was trying to force Simor out. He failed as is his habit.
“He failed as is his habit.”
Really?
Orban never fails; his only habits are football, studying the Word of God & a two-quart-a-day milk fix.
Orban not only has red lines, but also white and green lines. These are the hidden lines, the ones that nobody can cross.
Leto,
We all know that Orbán did IT to pressure Simor to resign.
That violates the principle of the independence of the central bank.
I would welcome a reduction in the salary after Simor finished his term and so did the EU.
The issue is the timing. This happened after a stormy meeting between Orbán and Simor where the former demanded his resignation.
Ironically, even though Orbán has packed the Central Bank with Fidesz allies. He has had no visible success in altering bank monetary policy.
Consider donating money to Simor since now, due to Orbán, he earns less than the FED chairman.
“even though Orbán has packed the Central Bank with Fidesz allies”
I wish that would be so. Unfortunately it’s only a lie of your ilk.
“He has had no visible success in altering bank monetary policy.”
Too bad. Then what are you all whining about?
Red lines? It almost looks like there are negotiations going on.
But there are no negotiations at all. The VO government crosses the lines. Not the other way around. There are accelerated infringement proceedings against Hungary.
I guess for the first time in the history of the EU we are talking about accelerated proceedings!
There will be no tolerance for the VO government at all. After all the insults towards the EU/ one of them being the comparison of Brussels with Moscow by VO.
There are hardly any allies for VO left within the EU.
All the other states within the EU agree over the ideas and ideals of the EU except Hungary nowadays. So all those nations are stupid? Only the current VO government has wisdom. Not very likely. There is a reason for the isolated position of Hungary. Why not look at that and start asking yourself some deep questions.
Seems to me that VO will only bow for the money….insult the EU again …and will be history very soon. Like Berlusconi. Because time is running out for VO. The country is approaching a collapse under his leadership. It is obvious that there is a double game going on. A big difference in between the communication with the EU and within Hungary itself. And EU leaders are very well aware of the hidden agenda/the real intentions of VO. Again there will be zero tolerance.
It isn’t a battle. Orbán would like to portray it as a battle, but the reality is that the IMF and EU hold all the cards.
The EU and the IMF won’t compromise.
What is really interesting is whether Orbán is sincere or just playing for time like Turkey.