April 19th, 2012

Ipsos polls shows Fidesz, Socialists losing support among committed voters

Hungary’s ruling Fidesz retained an unchanged 14-point lead over its main rival Socialists in April, with both parties losing two points in support from March among voters who are committed to turn out at the polls, a poll by Ipsos sent to MTI on Wednesday showed.

Fidesz had 39 percent support over the Socialists’ 25 percent in this camp in April.

The radical nationalist Jobbik gained 3 percentage points to 22 percent in April among committed voters while the small opposition LMP was down two points to 7 percent and the Democratic Coalition gained one point to 5 percent from March, reaching the threshold of parliamentary representation for the first time since its foundation last year.

Fully 51 percent of the adult population, however, had no party preference or showed no willingness to participate.

Fidesz had the backing of 17 percent of the whole populace in April, down from 19 percent in March. Support for the Socialists fell from 14 to 12 percent in the whole sample. Jobbik was up three points to 10 percent. LMP was down one point to 4 percent and the Democratic Coalition stayed level at 2 percent support in April.

In the under-30 age group, Fidesz stood on 15 percent, with Jobbik a close second at 12 percent of support. In the 50 plus age group, the Socialists are up three points on Fidesz at 20 percent backing.

The poll was conducted from April 6 to 13 on a sample of 1,500.

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  • Illuminati

    In 2013 there will be a change of central bank heads, which means the government will mark not Ader Janos, but some other Fidesz. They will then proceed to “borrow” a bit of funds out of the 30+ million euro reserve to “develop” Hungary.

    This money will be funneled to the Ministry of National Development, Zsuzsa Nemeth, that will in turn funnel it to political consultants and other marketing media to promote the Fidesz prior to the 2014 election.

    Free elections, great.
    Free propaganda, priceless.

    • I love Hungary

      This is why Orban will make sure talks withe the IMF “fail”.

      He needs justification to become the Hitler of Hungary.

  • Bad Omen

    17% Fidesz, 28% not Fidesz, 55% nobody. A “Democracy” in critical condition.

    • Andy

      17% = 2/3 supermajority.

      • Leto مؤدّب

        @hülye tótocska:

        54% = 2/3 supermajority.

        • Pete H.

          @ bolond ember aka kis rágcsáló

          54% = 66.66% And that’s were all the trouble started. Because in a reasonable system 54% = 54%.

          • Leto مؤدّب

            @rotten postcommie bastard:

            A reasonable election system introduces non-linearity in order to ensure governability. The rules were known to everybody, including the parties and the voters, so stop whining.

            BTW, this result would mean 392 Fidesz-KDNP MPs and 2 MSZP MPs in the ‘first past the pole’ UK system.

  • Aloof

    Fully 51 percent of the adult population, however, had no party preference or showed no willingness to participate.

    That’s a goog portion of the story here. That says anger, apathy, and disillusionment at the very least. Some people never care about politics they’re too busy just trying to survive.

    Ditto to Illuminati…

  • Illuminati

    Mr D’Amato, I’m not sure if you post extracts from Hungarian papers? There was a funny incident in parliament today.

    Apparently one Fidesz party member, Selmeczi Gabriella spokeswoman, and one MSZP party member called the DK party just another form of KISZ, which is of course the Hungarian Young Communist League.

    Apparently the two airheads didn’t know their history, that is; Ader, Kover, and Orban were all members, and Orban actually ran for head of the Hungarian Young Communist League in the fraction he was in, although he lost to another person had a ragequit (left in rage) and started his own fraction.

    It’s lovely how we have a PM that is a failed former Hungarian Young Communist League leader and started his own fraction.

    —http://www.nepszava.hu/articles/article.php?id=541746

    Not to mention the PMs father was apparently a super commie party secretary in the Kadar communist/socialist era.

    How does it feel now Post-Commie Leto?

  • Leto غول مؤدّب

    Nice two Fidesz by-election victories today in Budapest and Miskolc. The Budapest one was 57%. 🙂

    • Pete H.

      Some interesting details regarding the by-elections.

      1) Fidesz only won in one election were the major parties fielded candidates. That was is Miskolc were they barely squeaked by MSZP.

      39.66% Fidesz, 38.68% MSZP, and Jobbik 15.6%.

      2) In Budapest District II none of the major parties fielded candidates in opposition to Fidesz. Fidesz captured 57%.

      Three other elections were held in Hungary that Leto did not mention. In those elections only independents ran and of course one of them won. None of the major parties were able to muster the needed support to field a candidate.

      So this is mixed news for Fidesz.

      I have no information on whether District II is historically a Fidesz supporting district or if this was a flip from left to right control. If the former, not really big new regarding Fidesz, just status quo.

      Miskolc is interesting since it was very close and I was surprised to see such low support for Jobbick in NE Hungary. That was really the best news coming out of this set of by elections.

      -http://www.hirado.hu/Hirek/2012/04/22/23/Ot_helyen_tartottak_idokozi_valasztast.aspx

      • Leto غول مؤدّب

        In Budapest District II, MSZ, LMP and Gyurcsány’s party backed the “independent candidate” who got 32%.

        “in those elections only independents ran”

        Just like in the majority of local elections in small places since 1990.

        • Pete H.

          In Budapest, if Fidesz flipped the spot away from an MSZP backed independent, then you can crow a little bit. Did they?

          But, if they simply held on to a seat they already had. No big deal.

          In Miskolc, they won by less than 1% compared to the 14% lead they have nationally with decided voters. Not a very impressive win.

          These small contests won’t matter much come the next national elections. Too much is going to happen in the time in between.

          • Leto غول مؤدّب

            “These small contests won’t matter much come the next national elections.”

            Perfectly true. What matters much more can be read here :
            -http://www.politics.hu/poll-tracker/

          • Pete H.

            As far as I can tell District II has been a Fidesz stronghold since at least 2002. So that news is not really very telling.

            Yes, the poll tracker show how little of Fidesz’s support remains after two years. And how most of the country supports none of the major parties.

          • Leto جبار مؤدّب

            What the poll tracker actually shows is that Fidesz-KDNP has about as many supporters as all the opposition parties together. That’s easily enough for winning the elections by a convincing majority. Unless MSZP, LMP, Gyurcsány and Jobbik would form a coalition, of course. 🙂

  • Aloof

    @ Leto جبار مؤدّب says: April 23, 2012 at 8:35 am

    What the poll tracker actually shows is that Fidesz-KDNP has about as many supporters as all the opposition parties together…

    Biggest party in Hungary today are the 51% of the adult population who for whatever reasons won’t commit or don’t care. Says to me that they think all political parties either suck or are ineffective.

    • Leto جبار مؤدّب

      Any idea how committed the US adult population is to parties?

      This sounds a lot better to me than the approval rate for the US congress.

      -http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/bth67ih0tkwnnjhphvgcbg.gif

      • Aloof

        @Leto جبار مؤدّب says: April 23, 2012 at 1:18 pm

        Divert, change the subject, finger point, yawn. Your chronic denial will be catching with you soon enough…

        • Leto جبار مؤدّب

          Don’t throw stones if you live in a greenhouse.

      • Pete H.

        Who cares this is a site devoted to Hungarian politics. Your deflecting.

        And it’s “Glass House” not “Greenhouse”.

        • Leto جبار مؤدّب

          Well, at least a greenhouse is usually built of glass. 🙂

          BTW, then show me a European country where a lot more than half of the people are active politically between two elections. 😉

          • Pete H.

            Germany for one.

          • Leto جبار مؤدّب

            You surely only forgot to quote comparable data with verifiable source.

          • Pete H.

            Says the guy who thinks Wiki is a reliable source.

            And where is your reliable source for this? “Just like in the majority of local elections in small places since 1990.”

            What was that you said about greenhouses?

            A quick search will easily verify what I posted. If you can read German.

          • Leto جبار مؤدّب

            I can read German and it’s your duty to quote those sources if you claim something.

            Do you want me to dig up statistics on such a commonplace info that the majority of candidates are always independent in the local elections?

            I couldn’t find aggregated data in two minutes, so start browsing these detailed ones for the latest local elections: -http://www.valasztas.hu/hu/onkval2010/467/467_0_index.html

          • Pete H.

            Duty, you hypocritical weasel. More often than not you provide no backup for your dubious statements.

          • Leto جبار مؤدّب

            Ok, found it:

            34906 independent candidates out of 41607.

            -http://www.valasztas.hu/hu/onkval2010/467/467_0_index.html

            Is that big enough majority for you, postcommie moron?

            It’s your turn.

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