July 23rd, 2012

Socialists almost even with Fidesz in new Ipsos poll as “none of the above” nears two-thirds majority

By

Just 34 percent of respondents to a recent poll by Ipsos said they would cast their ballots if general elections were held this weekend.
The survey, released on Friday, indicated 33 percent support for the ruling Fidesz party and 30 percent for the main opposition Socialists among decided voters.

In the same group, radical nationalist Jobbik would garner 22 percent of the votes, small opposition LMP would get 8 percent and leftist group Democratic Coalition would be just one percent below the parliamentary threshold of 5 percent.

Tibor Zavecz, Ipsos’ head of research, cautioned that the low potential participation rate meant that, “we must be careful in drawing conclusions”.

He added that across the whole sample, Fidesz was supported by 16 percent and the Socialists by 14 percent, each one percent down from last month. Jobbik is favoured by 10 percent, LMP by 4 percent, and the Democratic Coalition by two percent.

Fifty-one percent of the respondents rejected all political parties.

The poll was conducted between July 11 and 18, with a sample of 1,500 voting-age adults.

Visit www.hungarymatters.hu to receive Hungarian news agency MTI’s twice-daily newsletter.
Topics
Share
  • Paul

    “Fidesz was supported by 16 percent “..eh?….that is it? Fidesz’s Leto’s are failing.

    • Leto. مؤدّب

      The usual wishful thinking… :D

  • Zsolt

    Ipsos poll lol don’t make me laugh…………..

  • Magyar

    MSZP must not win at all costs, even Zsidesz is better.
    Jobbik still has a shot at winning, or at least have a much bigger presence in the parliament.

  • Vidra

    On a sample of 1500 the margin of error is too high to be able to say who would win. Besides, it’s nice to know that most Hungarians are either decent enough or not honest enough to admit they support incompetent scumbags, racist scumbags or useless scumbags.

    • Leto. مؤدّب

      -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error#Calculations_assuming_random_sampling

      No, it isn’t. Taking 8 million voters, and a simple random sample as an approximation, the margin of error is approximately 1% for that 18% support level.

      My opinion is that, after Tárki’s badly failed attempt in May, it’s Szonda Ipsos turn at trying to manipulate the expectations of the public.
      Szonda Ipsos has been traditionally a pollster close to MSZP. His (ex?-)-CEO and owner Ádám Levendel was always clapping his hands on MSZP party conferences in the first rows and he made that infamous slip of the tongue in 2002: “We won!”

      • Vidra

        How could you look up a defunct link? Anyway, the standard margin of error at the 95% confidence limit for 16% on a sample size of 1500 is minus/plus 2%, and only slightly smaller for 14%. I could quote the exact numbers to three decimal places but statisticians only do this to show they have a warped sense of humour. The two confidence intervals (Fidesz and comparison with each other party) overlap, which is why Zavecs cautioned about reading much into these figures.

        The correction factor you need to apply for a universe of 8 million voters is miniscule – what matters is the size of the sample.

        All reputable pollsters are members of ESOMAR, an international professional organisation that lays down strict rules in terms of methodology and how the results are reported. Most opinion polls that are shared with the public are commissioned by newspapers or magazines so, if you want to look for bias, first think about the politics of whichever newspaper features it.

        • Leto. مؤدّب

          My link works.

          The sample size of 1500 is fine in Hungary. It’s the (statistical and other kind of) bias what is the problem in these polls.

      • Pete H.

        Ipsos predicted that Fidesz would win by 64% during the last election. If they are so biased why did they overestimate the Fidesz share of the vote?

        What kind of conspiracy were they in during the last election to manipulate the vote? To better Fidesz’s chances? So whose side are they on?

        You’ll have to come up with something better to discredit Ipsos.

        • Leto. مؤدّب

          Beszélő was the party journal of SZDSZ.
          Viktor Szigetvári was a sidekick to Gyurcsány, one of the “young Turks” of MSZP.

          He admits/blurts out in this interview (what was only rumoured at that time) that Ádám Levendel (then CEO and owner of Szonda Ipsos) was an integral member of the MSZP campaign team:

          -http://beszelo.c3.hu/cikkek/%E2%80%9Ea-felelos-politikat-is-el-kell-adni-a-valasztoknak%E2%80%9D

          • Pete H.

            OK, but Ádám Levendel is not currently the CEO. And since they overestimated the Fidesz win during the last election, you can not assume they are underestimating current level of support.

            János Gulyás current CEO of Szonda Ipsos http://newomd.netkey.hu/en/node/152

            You don’t like the current poll results, so you dig up some old news. You got nothing.

          • Leto. مؤدّب

            “they overestimated the Fidesz win during the last election”

            In order to frighten into voting MSZP/SZDSZ those who would have considered this evil option? ;)

            “János Gulyás current CEO of Szonda Ipsos ”

            So what? Levendel was an owner, too. And probably he is still one.

  • Etus

    Vidra says: It’s nice to know that most Hungarians are either decent enough or not honest enough to admit they support incompetent scumbags, racist scumbags or useless scumbags.
    Hungarians have enough problems as it is and Fidesz is not only making it worse – they are making life insufferable for people of the middle and lower middle class. I wonder when the day will come when Hungarians will say enough is enough!

    • ricsi

      That day will come when they realise they can ONLY vote for JOBBIK,if they hope for a realistic change.

      • Deposit

        If Hungarians want to become the pariahs of Europe, that’s indeed the way to go. For the last 2 decades, Hungary has gone from bad to worse but I guess the real bottom is even more shallow.

        • Paul

          “If Hungarians want to become the pariahs of Europe, that’s indeed the way to go.”…but they already are. At least the government.

          • Leto. مؤدّب

            You believe in word magic and mantras, don’t you? :D

  • Bowen

    This poll is a LIE created by post-commie traitors, or foreign scum who just want to attack innocent Hungarians.

    66% (or more) of all Hungarians will vote for Fidesz, just like they did in 2010, when they gave Orban Viktor the clear mandate to recreate the country.

    Do not listen to the LIES of this poll. This poll is a LIE. Therefore, this poll proves that the majority of Hungarians are very happy with what Fidesz are doing, and are fully 100% supportive of our Prime Minister and his actions over the last two years. That is the only fact that this poll proves.

    • Vidra

      Whoever this Bowen is doesn’t understand how opinion polls work. They DO NOT predict who will win because:
      – They cover a sample of everybody eligible to vote
      -some won’t
      – They assume no difference in voting intentions
      between those who choose to respond and those who
      don’t – though there might be a correlation between
      willingness to help and party affiliations
      – They accept people’s answers at face value – those
      who would actually vote for any “unpopular” party
      might be too embarrassed to admit it and so put
      “don’t know”
      In short, this poll proves nothing, except the fact they are a good way of generating publicity.

      • Bowen

        Ah yes, the dangers of accepting people’s answers at face value.

      • Paul

        ….but an indication that Fidesz is soooo far away from an absolute majority…still so arrogant.

  • Leto. مؤدّب

    “Whoever this Bowen is”

    He’s a comrade of yours. :)

    “doesn’t understand how opinion polls work”

    No worries, that’s not the only thing he’s clueless about. :D

    As far as your post is concerned, the points you made are valid, the conclusion is not. Polls can be used for predicting things but certainly, like in nearly all other cases, only for the short term. And it’s not only about the time span. The election campaigns almost always change things too much. So no poll has any real predictive power for the 2014 elections, of course. However they do have this (imperfect!) predictive power for by-elections to be held soon.

    • Vidra

      I have friends, not comrades (except in the struggle to be first in the pub after work), and they vote for many different parties – even Fidesz and Jobbik.

      Yes, of course, polls can predict the likely outcome but only under a long list of provisos, none of which apply here and now. Local elections are another matter (and way outside the scope of this poll) and are generally won by the party that has the best grass-roots support, as most people can’t be bothered to vote then. You don’t need opinion polls to tell that Fidesz will retain their stranglehold on town halls.

More content from Hungary's leading foreign-language media network
About Politics.hu | Become an All Hungary Member | Newsletters | Contact Us | Advertise With Us
All content © 2004-2013 The All Hungary Media Group. Articles, comments and other information on the All Hungary Media Group's network of sites are provided "as is" without guarantees, warranties, or representations of any kind, and the opinions and views expressed in such articles and columns are not necessarily those of the All Hungary Media Group.