July 26th, 2012

Tárki poll sees Fidesz increasing lead over Socialists in July

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The ruling Fidesz-Christian Democratic alliance widened its lead ahead of the opposition Socialists in July, a poll released by Tarki to MTI on Wednesday showed.

Among all voters, Fidesz-KDNP’s support has remained unchanged at 18 percent compared with June, while backing for the Socialists dropped two points to 12 percent, Tarki said.

Radical nationalist Jobbik scored 10 percent, down only one point from June. The green LMP party again garnered 5 percent this month, the threshold for parliamentary representation, and the leftist Democratic Coalition (DK) also stayed level, at 2 percent.

Among decided voters, support for Fidesz-KDNP went up to 38 percent from June’s 36 percent, while eased for the Socialists to 25 from 27 percent.

Support for Jobbik, LMP and DK remained unchanged in this category. Jobbik was backed by 22 percent, LMP by 10 percent and DK 3 percent.

Readiness to vote declined to an all-time low in July, with less than half of eligible voters having a party preference and hardly more than a quarter saying that they would turn up for the vote in any case.

The poll was conducted on a sample of 1,000 from July 12 to 17.

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  • Here comes Leto

    Tarki is a good independent source unlike all the other ones that show the gap closing between the two….

    Is that right Leto?

    I have an iceberg I would like to sell you.

    • Bowen

      Of course. As Leto will no doubt explain, polls have no meaning, and cannot possibly predict the results of an election.

      Except ones which show that Fidesz are winning.

      • Leto. مؤدّب

        Polls have a meaning (but you’ve demonstrated in the other topic in a reply to Vidra’s post that you’re way too dumb to understand such a complex issue) and they can possibly predict the results of an imminent election.

  • wolfi

    Come on!

    Me first:

    I have the Brooklyn bridge to offer – a really nice view in the evening when we strolled on it …

  • Ronald Reagan

    So much for the left-wing poll the other day lol!

  • Here comes Leto

    Damn this must be a right wing poll company – As I am a left winger I am now taking lessons from the great Leto and saying I do not like the results so it must be rigged….

    It is impossible that the random sample was actually random… How many calls did you get Leto.

    Wolfi the Brooklyn Bridge is it really for sale? How much are you asking.

  • Pete H.

    A few things are clear from all the polls.

    1) A large group of Hungarians have no preference for any political party. This is a very unhealthy situation for a democratic nation.

    2) Fidesz’s popularity has plummeted since the election and they no longer can claim to have the mandate of the people.

    3) MSZP is within striking distance of Fidesz and the next election is likely to hinge on the economy. The economic forecast looks bleak. Therefore there is a high probability that Fidesz will lose more voters before the next election. Whether these voters end up as MSZP, Jobbik, or none of the above is uncertain.

    4) Hungary desperately needs a new moderate party.

  • Voter

    “2) Fidesz’s popularity has plummeted since the election and they no longer can claim to have the mandate of the people.”

    They officially have the mandate until they are voted out of office. All you can say is that they they no longer have the popular support of the people. BTW, governments’ popularity tends to go up and down during their term in office.

    • Leto. مؤدّب

      “All you can say is that they they no longer have the popular support of the people. ”

      And even that is false. Fidesz-KDNP has clearly the largest popular support by a big margin:

      Fidesz = MSZP + LMP + DK

      (among decided voters)
      Fidesz-KDNP: 38%
      MSZP: 25%
      Jobbik: 22%
      LMP: 10%
      DK: 3%

      • Pete H.

        “governments’ popularity tends to go up and down.” Yes, but in this case it plunged and never recovered.

        They still have the political power, but by definition they do not have the mandate. And since much of what they have done was never discussed before the election, It is questionable whether they had it two years ago.

        And 1/3 of decided voter is hardly popular among decided voters. And in term of the whole electorate they are as down in the dumps as MSZP.

        • Leto. مؤدّب

          Then what do they have “by definition”? :D

          “MSZP is within striking distance of Fidesz” and all that.. :)
          Your posts are nothing but seamless wishful thinking. :D

          Ceterum censeo MSZP delenda est.

      • Vidra

        Popular support includes everybody, not just those who are daft enough to entrust their future to one of these five.

        Leto, you’re better off looking at chicken innards for reassurance. At least nobody can contradict what you forsee from them.

        • Leto. مؤدّب

          And let me suggest you should pour molten lead into cold water at midnight.
          And we, decided voters, will reelect OV in 2014 for your pleasure. :D

          • Vidra

            No molten lead here – will candle wax do?

            In any case, there’s still time for MSZP to enter the 21st century, or for Jobbik to realise that its racist, anti-semitic posturings will hold it back from getting a decisive share of the votes. Don’t forget that political parties generally carry out their own private opinion research (and it’s a lot less crude than the published stuff), and that will tell them that winning the undecideds will win them the election, and how best to do it.

  • Magyar

    I doubt Fidesz will get 2/3 in 2014…

    • Leto. مؤدّب

      No, they won’t. So what? They’ll get a stable simple majority.

      • Magyar

        Its still early days, a lot could happen until 2014.
        Fidesz might bring Hungary to Austria’s level (as if Fidesz could LOL), or a fiasco like in 2006 might happen…

        • Leto. مؤدّب

          Look, 2010 was truly exceptional in a political sense. It’ll be more or less business as usual from 2014. No political force will have an absolute majority in the next 20 years. Even if Fidesz lose somehow they’ll stay strong.

          • Magyar

            The screw up of a ‘certain party’ had a big effect on the 2010 elections. I still cant believe people vote for them…
            Business as usual? In that case our future looks grim,since scandals,corruption, liberalism, gypsy crime, unemployment, Trianon, tracherous politicians is usual business in Hungary.

  • Jani

    The Free Hungarian Voice, opinionated & insightful
    freehungarianvoice.blogspot.com

  • Anonymous

    I am sure Fidesz will be re-elected on the basis of Hungary’s stellar economic performance. Orbán promised 5% annual real GDP growth and he delivered. He promised to make Hungary a respected member of the EU and he delivered! He will undoubtedly be forced to cut social benefits by the IMF and consequently he will declare victory ….

    • Magyar

      Not sure if serious….

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