The Patriotism and Progress Foundation, set up by former technocrat prime minister Gordon Bajnai, will issue a study today, analysing the structure of 106 constituencies, formed under the new election law, to show how the opposition could win the next general elections scheduled for 2014, national daily Nepszabadsag said on Thursday.
According to a summary published in the paper, 28 electoral districts are clearly right-leaning and 16 are left-leaning. There are 16 bipolar “swinging” districts where the Socialists used to have a strong voter base and could now regain. In 15 districts the opposition bar Jobbik should win over right-wing voters from Fidesz, and in 14 ones from both Fidesz and the radical nationalist Jobbik. In another 11 “three-pole” districts the current opposition parties may capitalise on Fidesz and the radical nationalist Jobbik weakening one another. Furthermore, in six urban districts the opposition also has a chance to gain at least a relative majority.
The 100-page study to be published offers three solutions for cooperation between the “democratic opposition forces”: joint candidates, coordination of candidates or setting up an electoral party.
The two authors, Bajnai’s former cabinet chief Viktor Szigetvari and Balazs Veto, conclude that parties or party alliances with more balanced support nationwide would have a bigger chance to win mandates in individual constituencies. No party which is backed only in Budapest and a few regions will be able to end the rule of the current centre-right government, they said.