May 15th, 2013

Latest Nézőpont poll shows Fidesz retaining lead over opposition

The ruling Fidesz-Christian alliance maintained its lead ahead of the left-of-centre opposition last month, think-tank Nezopont said on Wednesday.

In Nezopont’s polling sample, 33 percent of respondents supported Fidesz-KDNP, compared with 22 percent for the combined leftist opposition (13 percent support for the Socialists, 8 percent for ex-premier Gordon Bajnai’s E14-PM electoral alliance and 1 percent for leftist DK). Radical nationalist Jobbik had the backing of 11 percent.

Last month, 39 percent of decided voters backed Fidesz-KDNP, while 16 percent favoured the Socialists. E14-PM was backed by 10 percent and green party LMP by 6 percent, above the 5 percent threshold for seats in parliament. Jobbik was preferred by 13 percent.

In this group, only E14-PM increased its support (by one percent) while all other parties lost one percent compared with April.

The proportion of those who said they would definitely turn out for the vote if held this Sunday climbed to 61 percent from 52 percent last month, the poll commissioned by political daily Heti Valasz said.

With the elections only less than a year away, some 28 percent of eligible voters were fence-sitters, almost half of whom expressed a desire for a change of government. They account for 9 percent of the whole electorate (8 million people), giving the opposition potential to boost their support, said Nezopont.

The poll was conducted between May 6 and 10 with a sample of 1,000 voting-age adults.

Editor’s Note: This article received a new headline at 17:30 on 17/05/2013

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  • Leto مؤدّب

    “Latest Nézőpont poll shows Fidesz shedding six percentage points in one month”

    The article shows politics.hu shedding common sense (in one month?)…

    Fidesz-KDNP support among decided voters last month: 40%
    Fidesz-KDNP support among decided voters this month: 39%

    Fidesz-KDNP support among all voters last month: 32%
    Fidesz-KDNP support among all voters this month: 33%

    http://nezopontintezet.hu/aktualis/nem-erzodik-a-trafikugy-hatasa/

  • Paul

    This could be related to the tobacco corruption scandal also of course.

    http://www.tol.org/client/article/23771-tobacco-corruption-hungary-orban.html

    Budapest’s Smoking Gun:

    “Could a tobacco corruption scandal finally undo Hungary’s retrograde,
    hubristic government”?

    “Another popular explanation for the dismantling, in the last three
    years, of checks and balances in the Hungarian political system is
    more cynical, but it has gained currency recently. It says that the
    System of National Cooperation – as Orban and his bootlickers
    impudently call their awful regime – is about little more than
    naked, industrial-scale theft”".

    “The real reason behind the scheme, however, seems to have been to
    grab a flourishing market and redistribute it to friends. There has
    been scandal after scandal in recent weeks indicating that local
    governments, run by Orban’s people, doled out the concessions to
    businessmen based on their connections to the ruling party”.

    “Two audio recordings have surfaced from meetings in two provincial towns that appear to prove just that. There, licenses were awarded based on how much money the applicant had given to Fidesz, the governing party, and whether
    he or she was friends with the right people”.

    • Leto مؤدّب

      “This could be related to the tobacco corruption scandal”

      Yes, the practically unchanged high level of support for Fidesz means that people didn’t buy the hysteria about the tobacco shops.

      idesz-KDNP support among decided voters last month: 40%
      Fidesz-KDNP support among decided voters this month: 39%

      Fidesz-KDNP support among all voters last month: 32%
      Fidesz-KDNP support among all voters this month: 33%

      • Aloof

        LMAO…

        “This could be related to the tobacco corruption scandal”

        Yes, the unchanged high level of support for Fidesz means that people didn’t buy the hysteria about the tobacco shops. :)”

        The Tobacco Shop Scandal is just at the beginning not the end you stupid Fidesz asslicking moron.

        • Leto مؤدّب

          Just the beginning of what, cockroach? :D Your always one year-ahead wishful predictions about the collapse of Fidesz? ;)

          GDP growth in Q1 2013: 0.7% (higher than the expectations of most analysts)
          Inflation rate in April: 1.7% (all time low since 1974)
          Base rate at 4.75% (all time low, probably still 1.5% lower to go)
          MNB reserves increased by EUR 427 million to EUR 35,894 milion in April (time to spend on economy stimulation!)

          Hungary’s 5-year CDS is now 280. The Portuguese CDS is 338.

          • Aloof

            LMFAO… yeah as if OV hasn’t been stringing things out like IMF soap opera and all the EU psycho babble.

            I’ve told you all along it’s the economy stupid (which has land mines all over it) and OV’s utter arrogance plus who told you that OV is out of the woods with the EU yet?

            The only folks keeping Hungary afloat are the US and the EU and no matter what you say 0% net foreign investment that is actually heading negative is going to catch up with you sooner rather than later.

            Hungary has a pretty extensive list of EU shit they better get right pal or it’s tits up for you.

          • Leto مؤدّب

            Yes, it’s the economy, cockroach.
            The major economic figures are coming along nicely.

          • Aloof

            LMFAO… hey just nationalize the whole country and play with yourselves. You will not be missed.

          • Leto مؤدّب

            Hungarian people buying Hungarian treasury bonds… is that nationalization for you, disgusting cockroach? :) Then the Japanese have nationalized a lot indeed. :o

          • Aloof

            Hey tell me something about those Q1 numbers:

            1. In Q1, the building industry was at its 90 year low and there were bad snow storms in March plus other bad weather. So how were construction numbers up?

            2. Data adjusted to the calendar -0.3%
            In 2012, there were 64 working days in the first quarter.
            In 2013, there were 62 working days.

            Raw data -0.9%, so the raw data should be further negative not the other way around.
            What’s up with that man?

          • Leto مؤدّب

            Do you suspect a Fidesz-conspiracy, don’t you, cockroach? :D

          • Aloof

            So you don’t have answers again, no surprise.

            Again you demonstrate that you don’t know anything about the EU. Eurostat posts whatever member states send in. The European Court of Auditors will spot check or if they get tipped off that something isn’t right like with Spain last year then they act.
            Unlike Hungary, the EU is an institution built on trust between members where in Hungary you’re measured how thoroughly you can fuck your best friend or neighbor over.

            How many fucking times has Fidesz pulled that “we were misunderstood or misinterpreted crap” to especially include
            economic data like right now with “European Commission asks for clarification on government’s latest financial package.”

            They adjusted their numbers 6 times last year and we’re already at #5 this year. No other country even comes close to that.

          • Leto مؤدّب

            “Eurostat posts whatever member states send in.”

            Sure, sure, cockroach. :D That’s why they corrected Hungary’s budget deficit to 1.9% from the 2.2% figure the Hungarian Central Office for Statistics (KSH) posted. :)

          • just saying

            “what really matters is that a country should be endebted to its own citizens (as opposed to foreigners)”

            Have you not learned your lesson yet about pretending to know anything about the economy? Yes, apparently you can read the work of others, but you have no understanding of it, so you make yourself look like a fool. Remember, not all economies are the same, so economic measurements don’t necessarily mean the same thing in all economies.

            While it is helpful to have more government debt held by the people in your country, that’s not nearly as important as gaining a reputation for fiscal prudence and creditworthiness. The US is a case in point. According to the AARP, “As of January 2011, foreigners owned $4.45 trillion of U.S. debt, or approximately 47 percent of the debt held by the public”. Despite this, the US is viewed as very creditworthy (as is Japan), and not so indebted that it cannot pay back its debts, so its debt has a very low interest rate. Hungary’s rate is lower than Portugal at least in part because of the austerity measures undertaken by the current and former governments, at the behest of the EU.

            Therefore, you and Orbán have the EU, which you both seem to hate, to thank for the relatively low rates enjoyed by Hungary. However, the rates would be even lower if Hungary had done what the IMF asked it to do in order to get the backup loan authorization that Hungary asked for. The main reason the Hungarian government didn’t agree to the IMF requirements was because Orbán didn’t want oversight from the IMF regarding political checks and balances and anti-corruption efforts.

            The other problem with your theory is that if the government debt is mostly held by residents, then less available capital is being invested in local businesses and other economic activity, which means fewer jobs, lower productivity, and higher unemployment, all things being equal. Foreign investors are less likely to invest in those small businesses that make up the majority of economic activity in most economically healthy countries, so it’s better if the government doesn’t soak up that financial capital.

            A third problem is that a higher percentage of government debt being held by residents (don’t forget all those nice foreigners who were allowed to buy residency in Hungary by buying lots of government debt; they are included in this statistic as being “domestic”, not foreign debt holders) means that foreign investors are less willing to buy Hungarian debt in the current situation, even though the rates are still relatively high when compared to most other rich-world countries. That is probably because Hungary is not seen as being a good credit risk.

            I heartily encourage you to study economics much, much more than you have up until now.

          • Leto مؤدّب

            I have learned my lesson about not trying to argue with a moron like you. :)

          • just saying

            “I have learned my lesson about not trying to argue with a moron like you.”

            And you contradict yourself yet again, by arguing with me about this thread on another thread! I’m really starting to suspect that there is more than one person hired by Fidesz to post here under the label “Leto”. Either that, or you are a world-champion hypocrite!

          • Leto مؤدّب

            I didn’t quote that study in order to argue with you, that’s pointless, I quoted it for others’ sake.

          • Aloof

            Like fucking who? Certainly nobody here.

          • just saying

            You put it in a reply to my comment, so you were obviously replying to me. Just like someone from Fidesz to lie about something so blatantly.

            Speaking of lying and not being able to argue against my comments, why didn’t Fidesz submit its constitution to a referendum?

          • Leto مؤدّب

            That was the only place where my post could fit in because the post itself wasn’t related to that thread otherwise.

          • just saying

            You could’ve put it as a fresh comment on that article, or you could’ve replied to yourself, or many other options. Plus, the post started with, “Yup, I’ve given up … on you. You’re hopelessly stupid.”

            How is that not a reply to me? Keep lying, it’s fun to watch you squirm!

  • Donian

    Agree that headline and analysis appear wrong. Apple and orange comparison.

  • Leto مؤدّب

    Erik, so how long will it take to correct this false title?

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