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May 18th, 2015

Hungary’s public debt slightly up at 77.2% in first quarter of 2015

Hungary’s public debt stood at 77.2% of GDP at the end of March, up 0.3 percentage points from the end of last year, but down 5.1 percentage points from a year earlier, preliminary data from the central bank showed.In the first quarter, gross borrowing transactions raised public debt by 897 billion forints to 24,976 billion forints, while appreciation of the forint reduced the forint term amount by 440 billion forints.

According to the preliminary financial account figures, net general government borrowing was 610 billion forints in the twelve months to the end of Q1, equal to 1.9% of GDP including 61 billion forint financing requirement, 0.8% as a percentage of GDP, in the first quarter of 2015, the National Bank reported.

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  • “down 5.1 percentage points from a year earlier”

    That’s very impressive indeed!

    • Hungarian

      Here’s what he’s excited about. The 5.1 decrease was just recovering lost ground. The long term trend has moved no where.

      http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/2015/05/150518debt01.jpg

      • The “long term trend” is obviously that Fidesz has stopped the debt snowballing, a process your repelling postcommie/libnazi ilk started after 2002.

        • MagyarViking

          “Fidesz has stopped the debt snowballing”

          Not true, than:
          “In the first quarter, gross borrowing transactions raised public debt by 897 billion forints to 24,976 billion forints, while appreciation of the forint reduced the forint term amount by 440 billion forints”

          So, Fidesz is still lending more and more money – why?
          Just that 50% of this was hid by the fact that the forint grew stronger related to other currencies. The day the Euro will get stronger again, Fidesz cheating with mass-borrowing will be exposed…

          • It’s true. Look at the graph, Swedish moron.

          • MagyarViking

            The graph shows not the fact that:
            “gross borrowing transactions raised public debt by 897 billion forints to 24,976 billion forints”

            That is English for you continue rolling that snow-ball
            The graph just shows that because the GDP increased, the debt ratio decreased. That has nothing to do with Fidesz continuing to make that snowball bigger, just that it got more snow, so the snowball looks smaller in comparison.
            Which is an illusionary trick enough good to fool simpletons like yourself…

          • The graph shows the trends pretty well: Fidesz has stopped the debt avalanche your rotten libnazi/postcommie ilk started after 2002.

          • roderickbeck

            Hungary’s debt was already at East European record levels when the Socialist took power in 2002.

            Fidesz can persist in special taxes, but it will struggle to achieve any reduction until it tackles entitlement spending, which is like a Vampire kissing the Cross.

          • roderickbeck
          • MagyarViking

            No, it is typical ‘lying with statistics’ then the graph just shows the relation between the debt and GDP, so if you increase the GDP, the relation makes the snowball look smaller, even if it actually gets bigger…

          • You’re a frigging stupid libnazi slimeball.

          • MagyarViking

            Idiot, it is the nominal sum you pay back….

          • From a growing revenue, you stupid Swedish moron.

          • MagyarViking

            A growing GDP does not automatically equate a growing profit for the State to use for paying of that ever increasing snowball Fidesz is rolling in front of them of debts to pay off, hence there would be no need to borrow more money, which Fidesz is still doing…which the nominal figures show

          • roderickbeck

            The graph shows the debt has remained stable. There is no statistically significant fall.

            And that is troubling because Hungary has obligation to reduce the ratio to 60 and has already one of the highest tax burdens in Europe (social contributions are taxes).

          • rftftfgtgt efttgtt

            Most of the dept go to finance the growing gypsy population.

        • roderickbeck

          The long term trend is that Fidesz has had no success in reducing government debt. Statistically speaking it is a dead heat with the debt gyrating about 80 depending on the direction of interest and exchange rates.

          It is most likely that Hungarian debt will stay where it is or rise due to rising US interest rates and declining exchange value of the Forint.

      • FUCeausescu

        It was over 82% at the end of 2010. It went down to 77% by the end of 2014. I think that is in fact impressive. Most EU countries had an increase in the debt/GDP ratio during the corresponding period.

        • roderickbeck

          If you look at the chart, the debt fluctuates in a narrow range from slightly below 80 to slightly above. The only reason it did not continue to rise were falling interest rates (a cycle likely to reverse itself in the coming years) and a time reduction due to stealing private pension assets.

          • FUCeausescu

            You are either extremely disingenuous, or not the brightest tool in the shed.

            I will do my best to explain this in a way that adresses either your disingenous argument or your stupidity.

            Now imagine that you have 100 k forints in your account before your monthly paycheck comes in. Your monthly paycheck is 200 k, which means your account goes up to 300 k. But then your bills and other spending come in and by the end of the month you are left with 99 k. Would you say it is fair and correct to say that your savings fluctuate between 99 k and 300 k? Or would it be more correct to say that your savings declined by 1 k last month?

            Hungary’s yearly debt and deficit servicing needs amount to about 13% of GDP. If all of it were to be issued the first day of january, would it be fair to say that Hungary’s debt/GDP increased from 77% to 90%? Or would it be more accurate to wait till the end of the year and report on the year-end results? What you see in the graph as fluctuations are in fact due to the fact that Hungary front-loads its bond issuance. The debt/GDP ratio measured at the end of each year has been steadily declining.

            I tend to believe that you are just disingenous.

          • roderickbeck

            The issue is not whether the debt to GDP ratio is lower. It is. The issue is whether it is due to a downward trend or simply luck (random fluctuations). The graph suggests random fluctuations about a mean of 80.

            By the way, that is more plausible than any suggestion that the debt/GDP ratio is on a long term downward trend since that would simply an improvement in supply side fundamentals.

            Hungary’s economic fundamentals are in some respects, in most respects unchanged, and in a few limited instanced improved.

            Hungary still ranks as having one of the highest costs of doing business in Europe. Only 3 countries rank higher.

            And the government has refused to tack entitlements, which are clearly soaking up too much of the country’s GDP and leaving room for domestic investment.

          • FUCeausescu

            Again genius, the graph includes quarterly fluctuations, which are irrelevant as I said. Imagine a graph of your savings which includes the days when your monthly paycheck arrives.

            A more representative graph would be one that only shows year-end numbers.

            Here is the year-end data from the European commision, which gives a more accurate view of the situation.

            http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=teina225&plugin=1

            The debt/GDP has been under 80% for three years now, with a steady decline in place each year, and BTW, it is forecast by the EC to drop to around 75% by the end of this year.

            You are obviously very insincere in your arguments, which shows desperation at this point.

          • roderickbeck

            Well genius, the end-of-year figure can be manipulated in a variety of ways. In fact, the Hungarian government manipulates that number each year by running down cash reserves in the 4th quarter.

            So the 4th quarter number is not very informative. In fact, is an extremely noise number.

          • FUCeausescu

            Yes, but where do those cash reserves come from moron???

            Is it not from the fact that Hungary front loads its debt issuance???

            Yes, in the fourth quarter Hungary generally tends to pay down more debt than it issues. It is part of its debt management strategy, and there is nothing out of the ordinary about it. Bottom line is at the end of each year, the debt’GDP ratio has declined in the past few years. At this point you are engaging in an absurd attempt to deny it.

          • roderickbeck

            Not clear. You are using gross government debt instead of net government debt and it appears your measure excludes some debt included by the World Bank.

            The World Bank figures show net government Hungarian debt to GDP rising up to 2013, not falling.

            Moreover, this is a period of falling interest rates. That is not going to last. Rates are on the way up and that means the debt service burden will rise.

            Thanks for trying ….

          • FUCeausescu

            First of all, what makes you think that interest rates are on the rise any time soon? And besides, did not all the rest of the EU peers also benefit from low interest rates? Yet most of them had a growing debt’GDP ratio since 2010, with a few exceptions.

            Is it the “robust” global economy? You might have not noticed given the general lack of a strong recovery, but the latest economic cycle started with the 2008 recession, which takes us into the 8’th year, which has been the average length of an economic cycle in the past decades. We are at the most a year or two away from another recession, which means that interest rates are likely to remain low for at least another five years.

            I went by the EC data, which I think is the most reliable in this case. You can argue that the World Bank data is better, but I don’t see why that would be. I think the only thing to do in this case is agree to disagree.

          • roderickbeck

            By the way, you are using the wrong measure. The correct measure is net government debt and includes local governments.

            http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS/countries?order=wbapi_data_value_2012%20wbapi_data_value&sort=asc&display=default

            There is a huge gap between your wrong measure and the correct measure.

            Sloppy, sloppy, on your part. Glad to see you lived down to my expectations.

    • gavroche

      to everybody!!! our megalomaniac sadist wrote that hesheit “corrected”my “spelling error”. possible hesheit just used hisher dirty tricks. i ask everybody not to believe any poisoned arrow hesheit direct on me.

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